South America seen as the safest mineral bet in the West: report

[Ben Graham]

South America is emerging as the most stable and politically viable option for Western countries trying to rebalance critical mineral supply chains away from China, according to new research from Verisk Maplecroft.

The study comes as the United States and its allies intensify efforts to secure supplies of lithium, copper, cobalt, nickel, graphite and rare earth elements, driven by concerns over technology dependence, supply-chain resilience and geopolitics. 

Recent moves include US plans to expand strategic stockpiles and a 55-country push to establish a preferential critical minerals trade bloc.

Verisk Maplecroft assessed 10 emerging markets with major reserves using its Resource Nationalism Index and Political Risk Data, finding that Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Peru stand out for combining large resource endowments with comparatively moderate levels of state intervention and political risk. Other countries in the analysis included DR Congo, India, Indonesia, Madagascar, the Philippines and Tanzania.

Low-risk Andes

Most South American producers do not rank among the world’s highest-risk jurisdictions for resource nationalism. Peru, Chile and Argentina are among the strongest performers globally, while DR Congo, Indonesia and Tanzania sit within the top 20 most exposed countries out of 198 assessed.

“What differentiates South America is not the scale of reserves, but the distribution of risk,” Jimena Blanco, Verisk Maplecroft’s chief analyst, said. “Producers consistently combine large endowments of tech-critical minerals with comparatively moderate levels of resource nationalism and political risk.”

The firm rates the region’s overall risk-adjusted opportunity as distinctly favourable, although it cautions that exposure to higher-risk jurisdictions will remain unavoidable for certain minerals. 

This is already reflected in recent Western initiatives, such as the EU’s free trade agreement with India, partly tied to rare earth ambitions, and the US Strategic Minerals Cooperation Framework with DRC launched in December 2025.

When political instability is considered alongside state intervention, many countries with major critical mineral reserves still fall into a medium-risk category, suggesting relatively supportive conditions for long-term investment. However, some producers combine high political volatility with assertive government control, increasing the likelihood of export restrictions, state ownership or domestic value-addition requirements.

India’s rare earth policies, as well as conditions in DR Congo and Indonesia, highlight this dynamic. The findings suggest that while Western governments cannot fully avoid higher-risk suppliers, South America offers a comparatively stable anchor in an otherwise constrained global landscape.

West-friendly tilt

The research also challenges assumptions about geopolitical alignment. Using its Geopolitical Alignment Tool, which tracks factors such as UN voting, trade agreements and security ties, Verisk Maplecroft found that most of the 10 countries analyzed sit on the pro-Western or neutral end of the spectrum.

Argentina and the Philippines rank as close US allies, while Chile, Madagascar and India show strategic alignment. Peru and Indonesia are broadly neutral. Only Brazil, Tanzania and DR Congo tilt further away from Washington, largely due to stronger ties with US rivals.

According to the report, the overlap between sizeable reserves, manageable political risk and favourable geopolitical alignment makes South America central to Western diversification strategies.

“Securing tech-critical minerals is no longer just an economic challenge,” Blanco said. “The race will be won not by eliminating risk, but by managing it better than competitors.”