EUR/USD. Smart money. Bears analyzed the non-agricultural payment report and portrayed

[Ben Graham]

The EUR/USD pair rebounded from bullish imbalance 12 and reversed in favor of the euro, as I had warned. Thus, traders received yet another bullish signal that allowed them to open long positions. Yesterday, the situation worsened for bulls for several hours as they reacted to the 130,000 jobs created in the U.S. in January. However, it later became known that the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics revised the total number of jobs created in 2025 by 1 million. In which direction? According to the updated data, slightly more than 200,000 jobs were created over the entire year, which implies an average monthly increase of about 19,000 jobs. As we can see, the bears had little time to celebrate. The news background once again worked against them. In my view, new opportunities for further upside are now opening up for the bulls.

Yesterday, immediately after the release of the Nonfarm Payrolls and unemployment reports, I urged traders not to rush to conclusions. Today it has become clear that this advice was correct. No significant strengthening of the U.S. dollar followed. Bullish imbalance 12 remains an active support zone, near which a new bullish signal has already formed. Thus, the path upward remains open.

The chart structure continues to indicate bullish dominance. The bullish trend remains intact. A bullish signal formed at imbalance 11, and later another bullish signal appeared at imbalance 12. Therefore, traders can continue holding long positions. A closer look also reveals another bullish imbalance from February 9. As it is relatively small, I did not mark it separately on the charts, but it is present and may also provide support, potentially triggering a reaction as early as today.

On Thursday, the news background once again created difficulties for the U.S. currency. Initial jobless claims in the U.S. came in higher than expected, while existing home sales were lower than forecast. Two more reports added to the negative backdrop for the dollar.

Bulls have had sufficient reasons for further upside for the past six to seven months, and these reasons continue to accumulate. These include the dovish outlook for FOMC monetary policy, the overall policy of Donald Trump (which has not changed recently), the U.S.–China confrontation (currently only under a temporary truce), public protests in the U.S. under the slogan "No Kings," weakness in the labor market, the autumn government shutdown (which lasted a month and a half), and a new shutdown at the beginning of February. Additional factors include U.S. military actions toward certain countries, legal proceedings against Powell, the Greenland issue, and deteriorating relations with Canada and South Korea. Therefore, in my view, further growth of the pair would be fully justified.

I still do not believe in a bearish trend. The news background remains difficult to interpret in favor of the dollar, and I see no reason to attempt doing so. The blue line marks the price level below which the bullish trend could be considered complete. For bears to reach it, the pair would need to decline by about 460 points, which I consider unrealistic given the current news environment and the absence of any bearish patterns on the chart.

As a target for euro growth, I previously identified the bearish imbalance at 1.1976–1.2092 on the weekly chart, formed in June 2021. This pattern has now been fully filled. Above it, two levels stand out: 1.2348 and 1.2564. These are two peaks on the monthly chart.

News calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone:

• Eurozone – Q4 GDP change (10:00 UTC).
• U.S. – Consumer Price Index (13:30 UTC).

On February 13, the economic calendar includes two entries, both of which I consider important. The news background may influence market sentiment throughout Friday.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Advice:

In my view, the pair remains in the process of forming a bullish trend. Although the news background continues to favor the bulls, bears have repeatedly attempted counter-moves in recent months. However, I still see no realistic reasons for the start of a sustained bearish trend.

From imbalances 1, 2, 4, 5, 3, 8, and 9, traders had opportunities to buy the euro. In all cases, some growth followed, and the bullish trend has remained intact. Last week, a new bullish signal formed at imbalance 11, allowing traders to open long positions targeting 1.1976. That target was reached. This week, another bullish signal formed at imbalance 12, giving traders a new opportunity to buy the pair. Formal targets are 1.2348 and 1.2564.

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