To pay attention on February 13? Analysis of key events for beginners

[Ben Graham]

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

There are very few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Friday. In the European Union, the fourth-quarter GDP report will be published in its first estimate, but the market's reaction is likely to be the same as yesterday's response to the UK GDP report. This report cannot be called secondary, but the market has been ignoring many macroeconomic data in recent weeks, especially those not from the U.S. The key report of the day is the U.S. inflation data, which, following positive January labor and unemployment figures, has become the Federal Reserve's top priority. The Fed will base its upcoming monetary policy decisions primarily on inflation.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

Among the fundamental events on Friday, only the speech by Fed representative Stephen Miran stands out. Unfortunately (or fortunately), Miran's rhetoric can be predicted with 100% accuracy. Miran, who is the main protege of Trump within the Fed, will talk about the urgent need to lower the key interest rate. Especially now, when the labor market has begun to show signs of life (in January), and inflation could slow down to 2.4-2.5% today. However, the decision within the Fed is made not solely by Miran, as most FOMC members hold more "hawkish" views on monetary policy. Thus, Miran's speech is practically meaningless for traders.

General Conclusions:

On the last trading day of the week, both currency pairs may trade very calmly, at least until the release of U.S. inflation data. The euro can be traded today in the range of 1.1899-1.1908 or 1.1830-1.1837, while the British pound can be traded in the range of 1.3643-1.3652. We still see no grounds for the U.S. dollar to grow, but the U.S. inflation report may provoke a market reaction.

Main Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of the signal is determined by the time it takes to form (rebound or breaking through the level). The shorter the time, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened around a particular level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair can generate numerous false signals or no signals at all. In any case, it is best to stop trading at the first signs of a flat.
4. Trades are opened during the time period between the start of the European session and until the middle of the American session, after which all trades should be manually closed.
5. On the hourly timeframe, signals from the MACD indicator should ideally be traded only when there is good volatility and a trend confirmed by a trend line or channel.
6. If two levels are too close to each other (ranging from 5 to 20 pips), they should be considered as a support or resistance area.
7. After moving 15-20 pips in the correct direction, it is advisable to set the Stop Loss to break-even.

What's on the Charts:

• Support and resistance levels are targets for opening buy or sell trades. Take Profit levels can be placed around them.
• Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading now.
• The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – the histogram and signal line – serves as a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.
• Important speeches and reports (always found in the news calendar) can significantly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or it is advised to exit the market to avoid a sharp price reversal against the preceding movement.
• Beginners trading in the Forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing sound money management are the keys to long-term trading success.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com