EUR/USD: Simple tips for beginners on February 13. Analysis of yesterday's Forex exchanges

[Ben Graham]

Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Euro

The price test at 1.1872 coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to move down from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair only declined by 10 pips.

Yesterday afternoon, the financial markets saw slight fluctuations, driven by fresh U.S. data. Initial jobless claims data—an important marker of the labor market—was released. The results did not bring significant disappointments, which, in turn, provided noticeable, albeit minor, support to the U.S. dollar. Although this movement was modest, it signals optimism among market participants regarding the current state of the economy. A reduction in negative signals in the labor market, reflected in this week's reports, allowed investors to ease their concerns somewhat, boosting interest in the U.S. dollar.

Today, traders will focus on important macroeconomic reports from the Eurozone. The main event will be the release of fourth-quarter 2025 GDP data. It is unlikely that these figures will diverge significantly from preliminary estimates of a 0.3% growth compared to the third quarter.

Alongside the GDP figures, information about employment changes will be published. Additionally, data on the trade balance will be released. This indicator will show whether exports exceed imports—especially in light of the new trade agreement with the U.S., which is still in a "pending" status.

As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily focus on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: Today, I can buy euros when the price reaches around 1.1874 (green line on the chart) with a target to rise to 1.1893. At 1.1893, I plan to exit the market and also sell euros in the opposite direction, anticipating a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Growth for the euro today can only be expected after good data. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning its upward movement from there.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy euros today if there are two consecutive tests of the price 1.1855 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise to opposing levels of 1.1874 and 1.1893 can be expected.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell euros once the price reaches 1.1855 (red line on the chart). The target will be the level of 1.1835, where I intend to exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (anticipating a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return today if weak data are released. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning its downward movement.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell euros today if there are two consecutive tests of the price 1.1874 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A drop to the opposing levels of 1.1855 and 1.1835 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

The thin green line represents the entry price at which one can buy the trading instrument;

The thick green line represents the approximate price where one can set Take Profit or secure profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;

The thin red line represents the entry price at which one can sell the trading instrument;

The thick red line represents the approximate price where one can set Take Profit or secure profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;

The MACD indicator: when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market should be very careful when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, as outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com