Nasdaq 100 Forecast: Eyeing Fresh ATH Supported By Nvidia

[Redator]

Bullish animal spirits have roared back into the US stock market, reignited by the recent US-China trade tension truce, which led to a 90-day pause in lowered tariffs between the two superpower nations, with an expiration date set on 10 August 2025.

Key takeaways

• The 90-day US-China trade truce, ending August 10, 2025, reduces tariffs and lifts investor sentiment, pushing the Nasdaq 100 higher.
• Q1 Nvidia earnings are expected to show a 52% EPS jump, fuelling tech optimism and supporting the Nasdaq rally.
• A close above 21,440 key resistance on the Nasdaq 100 could trigger a move toward the 22,470–22,980 zone.
• Watch 20,340 key support for the Nasdaq 100 and 124.90 key support for Nvidia to maintain the bullish trend.

Meanwhile, US President Trump has dialled back his hawkish rhetoric on tariffs against the European Union (EU), extending the deadline for imposing 50% duties on all EU imports to 9 July from an earlier threat of 1 June.

The rebound in risk appetite and diminished expectations of a stagflation drove the major US stock indices above US President Trump’s 2 April “Liberation Day” levels. Significant rallies in the mega-cap technology stocks put the Nasdaq 100 back into a bull market. It surged by 29% from its 7 April low to Tuesday, 29 May’s closing level, just a month after it plummeted by -25% from its 19 February all-time high.

Bullish breakout in Nvidia suggests a fresh impulsive up move

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Fig 1: Nvidia medium-term trend as of 28 May 2025 (Source: TradingView)

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Nvidia, the second-largest market-cap component stock in the Nasdaq 100, is set to report its first-quarter earnings results after the close of today’s US session, 28 May.

A rosy beat is expected, where the consensus is expecting a significant jump of 52% in earnings per share to US$0.93 from US$0.61 (Q1 2024), according to data compiled by Trading Economics, suggesting resilient demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI) related GPU chips despite a potential bleak global economic growth prospect due to the uncertainties from US trade tariffs.

The technical chart of Nvidia suggests that its price actions are set to potentially retest its current all-time high level printed on 7 January, with its first medium-term resistance at 148.77, and a break above it sees 158.30 (Fibonacci extension cluster) next.

Key medium-term support rests at 124.90 (also the 20-day and 200-day moving averages).

Two key bullish elements. Firstly, the rising daily Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator above 0.17, which suggests a bullish momentum condition with an expansion in volume. Secondly, the ratio chart of Nvidia/Nasdaq 100 is advocating further Nvidia’s outperformance over Nasdaq 100 as it inches higher above its 50-day moving average since 7 May (see Fig 1).

All in all, these observations suggest that a positive development in Nvidia’s technical chart may see a positive feedback loop into the price actions of the Nasdaq 100.

Impending potential bullish breakout above 21,440 for the Nasdaq 100

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Fig 2: US Nasdaq 100 CFD Index medium-term trend as of 28 May 2025 (Source: TradingView)

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Since 15 May 2025, the price actions of the Nasdaq 100 CFD Index (a proxy of the Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures) have faced a “stubborn” intermediate resistance at the 21,440.

However, two technical factors are now supporting a potential bullish breakout above 21,440 (finally) as Nvidia’s earnings announcement looms after the closing bell today, 28 May.

Market breadth conditions have improved significantly since 12 May, as the percentage of Nasdaq 100 component stocks trading above their respective key 200-day moving averages has risen to 61% as of Tuesday, 27 May, from 44% printed on 6 May (see Fig 2).

The daily RSI momentum indicator has inched higher steadily and has not reached an extreme overbought level of 78 and above, which suggests the medium-term upside momentum remains intact.

Watch the key 20,340 key medium-term pivotal support (also the 200-day moving average), and a clearance above 21,440 sees the next medium-term resistance coming in at 22,470/22,980.

On the other hand, failure to hold at 20,340 key support for the Nasdaq 100 CFD Index invalidates the bullish scenario to kickstart another corrective decline sequence to expose the next medium-term supports at 19,760 and 19,240 within its major uptrend phase.

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