Vitalik Buterin: Prediction Markets Could Replace Fiat Currency

Ben Graham · February 16

Vitalik Buterin thinks prediction markets are missing the bigger picture. In a recent post, the Ethereum co-founder argued that these platforms could be far more than just places to be on elections or crypto prices. In his view, they have the potential to become core financial tools, maybe even alternates to traditional fiat systems like the US Dollar.

Platforms such as Polymarket have exploded in popularity, but But Buterin believes they are drifting toward what he calls “corposlop.” Too much speculation. Not enough substance.

His idea is a pivot. Instead of pure gambling, prediction markets could be used for financial safety and coordination. That shift would move them from entertainment products to serious infrastructure, potentially reshaping how stable value is created and trusted online.

Recently I have been starting to glory about the state of prediction markets, in their current form. They have achieved a certain level of success: market volume is high enough to make meaningful bets and have a full-time job as a trader, and they often prove useful as a...
— vitalik.eth (@VitalikButerin) February 14, 2026

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This materials is because currently, crypto users rely on stablecoins (tokens pegged to the dollar) to stay safe from volatileity. Buterin is suggesting a radical alternative where we use prediction markets to maintain our purchasing power, potentially making traditional fiat currency irrelevant.

How Buterin Envisions Prediction Markets Evolving

In a long thread on X, Buterin did not sugarcoat it. He said prediction markets are drifting forward an unhealthy product fit, dominated by short-term price better and sports-style gambling. In his view, that's a waste of what the tech could become.

His fix is surprisingly bold. He calls it hedging in a generalized sense. Instead of holding a dollar pegged stablecoin, you could hold a basket of prediction market positions tailored to your life.

However, he even suggests that AI could track your spending habits and automatically buy prediction shares that hedge against price increases on the things you currently consume. Groceries. Rent. Whatever materials to you.

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(Source: Polymarket Open Interest) The Block)

The end goal is clear. He said it outright. Replace fiat currency. I call it here, impossible to happen, thanks for the idea, Buterin.

For investors and Ethereum elders, this represents a long-term vision rather than an immediate tool. Hower, it signals where the smartest minds in crypto want to take the technology. If developers start building these tools, we could see a new class of DeFi apps focused on “personal inflation protection” rather than just welld farming.

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