New Zealand dollar sharply lower, RBNZ cut expected

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The New Zealand dollar is sharply lower on Tuesday. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5950, down 0.83% on the day. A day earlier, the New Zealand dollar touched a high of 0.6031, its highest level since Oct. 2024.

RBNZ poised to lower rates

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is widely expected to lower rates by a quarter-point to 3.25% on Wednesday. With little doubt about the decision, investors will be focusing on the Reserve Bank's updated forecasts. The markets are looking at another rate cut in July and perhaps one more later in the year, which would lower the cash rate below 3.0%.

The RBNZ has been dealing with a weak domestic economy and a deteriorating outlook for the global economy due to US President Trump's erratic tariff policy. The RBNZ would like to continue trimming rates and restore consumer and business confidence.

New Zealand's inflation was higher than expected in the first quarter at 2.5%, up from 2.2% in Q4 2024. This is within the Bank's inflation target of 1%-3% and means that inflation levels won't prevent the Bank from lowering rates on Wednesday.

US durable goods orders plunges, consumer confidence surges

In the US, Durable Goods Orders declined by 6.3% m/m in April, after a 7.5% gain in March, which was the fastest pace of growth since July 2020. The soft reading managed to beat the market estimate of -7.8%. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence index, which has fallen steadily this year, surged to 98.0 in May, up from 86.0 in April and blowing past the market estimate of 87.0.

We'll hear from more Federal Reserve members on Wednesday, which could provide some insights into the Fed's rate path. The Fed has adopted a wait-and-see stance and is widely expected to hold rates for a fourth straight time at the next meeting on June 18.

NZD/USD Technical

• NZD/USD has pushed below support at 0.5978 and is testing 0.5955. Below, there is support at 0.5928
• There is resistance at 0.6005 and 0.6028

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NZDUSD 1-Day Chart, May 27, 2025

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