GBP/USD. Analysis and Forecast

[Ben Graham]

The GBP/USD pair is struggling to build on yesterday's rebound from a new February low, which formed slightly below the psychological 1.3500 level. However, pressure from negative factors is being partially offset, as market participants appear to be avoiding aggressive directional positions ahead of the release of the FOMC meeting minutes.

At the same time, despite more encouraging UK economic data today, the disappointing employment figures released on Tuesday strengthened expectations of a Bank of England rate cut in March, weighing on the British pound.

Moderate strengthening of the U.S. dollar is also limiting GBP/USD's upside. Nevertheless, the dovish outlook for the Federal Reserve could restrain further dollar gains and help reduce losses for the currency pair.From a technical perspective, yesterday's break below the 200-period simple moving average (SMA) on the 4-hour timeframe was seen as a key signal for GBP/USD bears. However, prices are now attempting to move back above and consolidate over the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart. The MACD indicator shows the histogram in negative territory. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also in negative territory, recovering from the oversold zone.

The 200-period SMA is showing moderate upward movement, and GBP/USD is slightly trading above it but facing resistance at the 9-period EMA. A break above this barrier would strengthen bullish momentum. Otherwise, if the pair falls back below the 200-period SMA, it could activate sellers and lead to further declines. It is also worth noting that on the daily chart, the RSI has moved into negative territory, indicating weakness among the bulls.

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