XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

[Ben Graham]

Over the past two weeks, gold has fluctuated within a range near $5,000 per ounce. The week began with a decline to $4,850, followed by a gradual rise to $5,030. The precious metal has shown resilience despite hawkish rhetoric from the FOMC, a stronger U.S. dollar, and rising Treasury yields.

Geopolitical risks appear to be underpinning demand, as some investors are positioning gold as a hedge against market volatility. On Thursday, U.S. President Donald Trump warned Iran that it must reach an agreement on its nuclear program within the next 10–15 days or face what he described as "truly severe consequences." In response, Iran informed UN Secretary-General Ant?nio Guterres that it does not seek war but will not tolerate aggression and would consider all enemy bases and assets in the region legitimate targets. This escalation increases the risk of military confrontation and a broader regional conflict in the Middle East, supporting gold as a safe-haven asset and contributing to moderate price gains toward the end of the week.

In addition, concerns remain about a potential shift by the FOMC toward aggressive policy easing following the change of the Federal Reserve chair in May. This creates a short-term bullish backdrop, especially with prices still about 13% below their peak levels. Since early February, a structure of higher lows has been forming, confirming renewed buyer activity.

However, the minutes of the January FOMC meeting indicate that the U.S. central bank is not rushing to cut rates further; committee members also discussed the possibility of raising rates if inflation does not ease. U.S. labor market data continue to show strong resilience, and together with hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials, this has led markets to scale back expectations of aggressive easing. The adjustment in interest rate forecasts has strengthened the U.S. dollar, which reached a new weekly high, thereby limiting gold's upward potential and requiring caution from buyers.

Therefore, a continued bullish scenario for gold would require a confident consolidation above the 5,100 level.

It is also worth noting that the current situation resembles 2011, when there were multiple failed attempts to resume growth in the precious metal. At that time, a decline of more than 20% in late 2011 and 2012 was followed by a 75% recovery, but it took nine years to set a new record high. A comparable resistance level now lies around $5,400, although even $5,100 remains a significant barrier.

Nevertheless, daily chart oscillators remain positive. The MACD histogram is declining, indicating weakening bullish momentum, but bulls still retain strength.

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