Bitcoin Sharpe Ratio Falls To -38: Why This Is Super Bullish, According To Analyst

[Ben Graham]

Market analyst Michaël van de Poppe has noted an important on-chain development that implies a brewing market rebound. This market insight comes as Bitcoin continues to consolidate below $70,000, reporting a 2.38% loss in the past week.

Bitcoin Short-Term Sharpe Ratio Indicates Bear Market End

In an X post on February 21, van de Poppe shares a bullish view on the Bitcoin market, referencing historical data of the Bitcoin Sharpe Ratio – an on-chain metric that measures how much excess return Bitcoin generates per unit of volatility. The Sharpe Ratio is cyclical. It’s highly positive during bull markets but turns negative during extended drawdowns. According to data shared by de Poppe, the Bitcoin Sharpe Ratio has dropped to -38.38 in the short term, which is historically recognized as a low risk accumulation zone.

De Poppe explains that the Sharpe Ratio has touched similar levels in the past thrice, in early 2015, early 2019, and late 2022. Each time, this dip has preceded a major price rally. This is because a crash to these extremely low levels on the short-term chart suggests Bitcoin is underperforming in terms of risk-to-reward ratio, presenting the ideal point for a market entry.

 

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Over the past five months, Bitcoin has experienced a steep bear market, resulting in a total decline of 45.86% compared to its all-time high in October. In February alone, BTC prices have fallen by over 23% as prices dipped as low as $60,000 at the beginning of the month. 

De Poppe’s analysis shows that this recent crash has also negatively altered the BTC to Gold ratio, creating a potentially market opportunity due to the imbalance between both assets. Going by the historical price reaction to such conditions, the market expert explains that the Sharpe Ratio has highlighted this opportunity, which he described as super bullish.

Bitcoin Market Overview

At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $68,299, representing a 0.72% gain in the past day. However, the daily trading volume is down by 50.04% and is valued at $19.15 billion. Notably, market analyst KillaXBT expects Bitcoin to retrace to around $67,800 on Monday in an effort to fill the CME gap created over the weekend. The premier cryptocurrency has shown a solid record on this front, with 96% of the CME gaps observed since 2022 getting filled within a maximum of two weeks.

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