Why The XRP Price Bottom Could Be In, And A Jump Above $2 Is Coming

[Ben Graham]

The XRP price may be approaching a decisive turning point after fresh on-chain data revealed one of the most extreme capitulation events in years. According to Santiment analysis, XRP has just recorded its largest realized loss spike since 2022, a development that has previously preceded a major price recovery. The data is now fueling expectations that a bottom could be in, with a move back above $2 increasingly within reach if history repeats. 

XRP Price Bottom Signals Emerge After Historic Loss Spike

Santiment’s weekly Network Realized Profit/Loss chart, which tracks five years of XRP alongside price action, has revealed a dramatic spike in on-chain realized losses. The latest readings came in at roughly -908 million XRP, marking the largest capitulation event since November 2022, when weekly realized losses hit nearly -1.93 billion. 

Notably, the 2022 capitulation event occurred after a period of compression and decline. At the time, XRP’s price had been trending downward for months before the -1.93 billion reading printed. This showed that investors were selling at heavy losses near what later proved to be a price bottom. After that point, the trend reversed, and over the next eight months, the XRP price rose more than 114%. 

Based on Santiment’s analysis, XRP’s current structure is mirroring this 2022 setup. The cryptocurrency recently fell from above $3 to the mid-$1 range, with the chart showing price hovering around $1.45 to $1.65 as the realized loss spike emerged. This sharp increase in losses suggests widespread capitulation, as many holders appear to have sold at a loss out of fear and panic rather than waiting for a potential rebound.  

Historically, this type of extreme loss spike tends to appear near price floors, suggesting that the recent -908 million reading in the current cycle could be a major bottom signal for XRP. The chart shows that the most negative readings cluster around key inflection points, where selling pressure peaks and then begins to fade. In both 2022 and the current setup, the realized loss spike came after a prolonged downtrend, reinforcing the idea that an XRP price bottom could be in.

A Possible Recovery Toward $2

While the comparison to the 2022 capitulation event suggests a potential bottom for XRP, it also points to a potential bullish recovery. After the -1.93 billion realized loss spike in 2022, XRP did not rebound immediately. Instead, it gradually shifted structure and produced a 114% rally over the next eight months. 

From the current price range near $1.35, a similar gain would push XRP well above the $2 threshold. The chart shows that past capitulation phases were followed by expanding candles and stronger upward momentum once selling pressure eased. If the recent -908 million realized loss spike represents a similar emotional extreme to the one observed in 2022, it could indicate that downside pressure is diminishing and a recovery may be approaching.