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Capital Abandon US Actions Amid Trump's Policy Chaos

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Igor Pereira
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  • ANALISTA

O Smart Money does not wait for the dust to drop; it moves before the headline.

While the retail market focuses on American internal political war and the battle of tariffs, institutional bulk money has already begun to cross borders. A tectonic shift in global portfolio allocation is happening right now, and data confirms an accelerated escape from American risk.

By Igor Pereira Financial Market Analyst

Below, the dissection of the financial flow (Order Flow macroeconomic) and how this will dictate the trend of the Dollar and Gold in the coming quarters.

Capital Abandon US Actions Amid Trumps Policy Chaos - ExpertFX School

The data tracked by Goldman Sachs and EPFR show a clear break in investor behavior.

  • The Global Rally: Since the beginning of 2026, we have been observing very strong capital flows entering global actions, specifically outside the United States. The chart perfectly illustrates the dark blue line (ex-US global backgrounds) shooting straight up.

  • The American Cold: On the other hand, capital entries in US shares are slowing down rapidly. The chart's light blue line has plummeted dramatically to the recent minimums.

We are not talking about marginal adjustments; we are talking about absolute records.

  • Volume: Since the beginning of 2026, global investors have allocated a record volume of $130 billion in equity funds, the largest amount recorded since 2022.

  • The Dollar Dry: Where this money is going reveals systemic fear. Four years ago, almost one out of every two dollars invested went directly to US stock funds. Today, this proportion has collapsed: only one every four dollars has the American market as its destination.

  • The Catalyst: According to Bank of America (BofA) and EPFR reports, this massive exodus occurs directly as a reflection of Trump's policies.

The institutional market has already stated that "America First" actually means bottlenecks in the supply chain, tariff inflation and legal uncertainty.

My Vision: When the trillions leave the historic safe harbor (US actions), the entire financial system trembles.

  1. The Dollar Impact (DXY): The capital flow output from the American stock market means less structural demand for the dollar. If investors are buying shares in Europe or Asia, they need to sell dollars to buy euros and yen. DXY has a path of pain ahead.

  2. Gold Impact (XAU/USD): Less confidence in US assets accelerates what JPMorgan has already warned: the race for sovereign protection. Gold is not just a hedge against inflation, but against the geopolitical risk of the American government itself. This capital leak fully validates our long-term high-end targets.


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