The European Union "Freezes" Ratification of Trade Agreement with the U.S.

Ben Graham · Monday at 22:47

Imagine a situation: you trade with anyone, anything, but one fine day, this entity decides you must pay more. This may upset you, but if your sales volumes to this entity are significant, an additional duty is preferable to a complete cessation of trade. You sign a trade agreement on terms that are absolutely unfavorable to you, but at the same time, it allows you to continue trading. But on yet another fine day, you are told that the terms specified in this agreement no longer apply, and now you must pay even more. How would you react to this?

Unfortunately, this is not about two peasants trading potatoes and firewood. It is about trade relations between the two largest economies in the world—the European Union and the United States. After the U.S. Supreme Court struck down all duties imposed in 2025 (except sectoral ones), Trump immediately reinstated the tariffs under trade law. However, this law prohibits him from imposing tariffs above 15% or for a period longer than 150 days without the approval of the U.S. Congress. Therefore, Trump, without much thought, imposed a uniform 15% tariff on all countries worldwide.

And now the European Union, which has been engaged in the ratification process of a trade agreement with America for several months, learned on Saturday that tariffs for everyone (that is, for the European Union as well) are set at 15%. Asking the question "what to do?" in the current situation is pointless. It is better to ask how it is possible that the terms of already agreed-upon deals are changed on the fly?

However, I have repeatedly stated in my reviews that negotiating anything with Trump means stubbornly stepping on the same rake, which hits you squarely in the forehead each time. Trump finds reasons to impose new tariffs time and again, demanding a deal that will, of course, be beneficial only to the U.S. After some time, you start receiving new claims, new tariffs are imposed, or old ones are increased. And here you are again at the very beginning of the negotiation process, and must think about how to persuade the American president this time. And this will continue indefinitely. Trump's imperial ambitions will not allow anyone in this world to live peacefully. The postulate is as follows: want to trade with the U.S.? You must live as Trump wants.

Wave Analysis on EUR/USD:

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to build an upward trend segment. Donald Trump's policy and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy remain significant factors in the long-term decline of the American currency. The targets for the current segment of the trend can stretch up to the 25th figure. At this moment, I believe that the instrument remains within the framework of global wave 5, so I expect an increase in quotes in the first half of 2026. The corrective structure a-b-c can be completed at any moment, as it has already taken a convincing form. I believe that it is now advisable to search for areas and levels for new purchases with targets located around 1.2195 and 1.2367, which correspond to 161.8% and 200.0% on the Fibonacci.

Wave Analysis on GBP/USD:

The wave analysis of the GBP/USD instrument is quite clear. The five-wave upward structure has completed its formation, but the global wave 5 may take a much more extended form. I believe that the construction of a corrective wave set may soon conclude, after which the upward trend will resume. Therefore, I can now advise seeking opportunities for new purchases with targets positioned above the 39 figure. In my opinion, under Trump, the British pound has a good chance of rising to $1.45-1.50.

Main Principles of My Analysis:

Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade, as they often bring changes.
If there is no confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter it.
There is never and can never be 100% certainty in the direction of movement. Do not forget about protective Stop Loss orders.
Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

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