NVIDIA (NVDA): Probing 195.95 bullish upside trigger as earnings loom today

[Ben Graham]

Key takeaways

• NVIDIA diverges from Magnificent 7 weakness: While most mega-cap tech names, led by Microsoft, have underperformed in 2026, NVIDIA has held up with a modest YTD gain, positioning its upcoming earnings as a key bellwether for global AI demand.
• Bullish consolidation above key support: NVIDIA remains in a three-month sideways range but is holding above its 200-day moving average, with improving relative strength versus the S&P 500 and a bullish MACD crossover signalling potential trend reversal.
• 195.95 breakout level in focus: A decisive move above 195.95 could trigger a medium-term uptrend toward a retest of 212.19 and higher, while a break below 169.55 would invalidate the bullish setup and expose deeper supports.

The mega-cap stocks in the US stock market, the “Magnificent 7”, have continued to underperform the market in general since the start of 2026, with the worst performer being Microsoft, with a double-digit year-to-date loss of 19.6% as of Tuesday, 24 February 2026, underperforming significantly against the Nasdaq 100 (-1.1%) and S&P 500 (+0.7%) (see Fig. 1).

K-shaped performance of Microsoft (SaaS) and NVIDIA (AI tool maker)

Fig. 1: Year-to-date performances of Magnificent 7 & US stock indices as of 24 Feb 2026 (Source: MacroMicro)

New Artificial Intelligence (AI) tools from Google and Anthropic raised concerns that the competitive edge of SaaS (Software as a Service) firms could be eroding.

NVIDIA, the AI juggernaut that managed to punch above the rest of the “Magnificent 7” with a year-to-date gain of 3.4% as of 24 February 2026. It will report its fiscal Q4 2025 earnings on Wednesday, 25 February, after the US session closes. Its results and guidance will likely serve as a bellwether for global AI demand.

Read more: NVIDIA (NVDA) Q4 Earnings Preview: High stakes for the AI standard-bearer

Let’s now decipher NVIDIA from a technical analysis perspective.

NVIDIA (NVDA) is in bullish consolidation above its key 200-day moving average

Fig. 2: NVIDIA (NVDA) medium-term trend as of 24 Feb 2026 (Source: TradingView)

Since 20 November 2025, the price actions of Nivida have been trading in a three-month sideways range configuration, holding above its key 200-day moving average.

Two positive technical developments have emerged (see Fig. 2).

Firstly, the volatility-adjusted relative strength (VARS) of NVIDIA against the S&P 500 exchange-traded fund has shaped a “higher low” since 19 February 2025 and pierced above its zero line on Tuesday, 24 February, ahead of today’s earnings results release. These observations suggest the prior 5-month underperformance of NVIDIA against the S&P 500 from 4 September 2025 to 20 February 2026.

Secondly, the daily MACD trend indicator of NVIDIA has shaped a bullish crossover above its centreline, which highlights the possibility of a trend change from sideways to an uptrend phase.

Watch the 169.55 key medium-term pivotal support (also close to the 200-day moving average) on NVIDIA, and a clearance above the 195.95 intermediate range resistance may trigger the start of a potential medium-term uptrend phase for a retest on its current all-time high of 212.19 printed on 29 October 2025 in the first step. The next medium-term resistances stand at 234.10 and 247.15 (Fibonacci extension clusters and the upper boundary of the ascending channel from 7 April 2025 low)

On the other hand, a break and a daily close below 169.55 invalidates the bullish scenario to expose the next medium-term supports at 153.00 and 135.35/129.90 (also the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the prior uptrend from 7 April 2025 low to 29 October 2025 high)

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