Gold price gains on tariff, geopolitical risks

[Ben Graham]

Gold advanced on Wednesday as investors continue to gauge the impact of new US tariffs and monitor ongoing frictions in the Middle East.

Spot gold climbed as much as 1.3% to above $5,200 an ounce, before easing back to around $5,180 per ounce. Silver also rose 3% to reach the $90-an-ounce level.

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Amid a lack of clarify over US trade policy, investors have crawled back to precious metals. While President Donald Trump’s broad-based 10% import levy came into effect this week, the threat of a rise to 15% still lingers.

As well, geopolitical risks have given safe-haven assets momentum as US-Iran tensions begin to build. The two sides are scheduled to hold a third round of nuclear talks on Thursday in Geneva.

Breakout in the making

Some analysts are predicting that gold may be the cusp of another breakout, driven by US President Donald Trump’s probe into additional tariffs and potential escalations in the Middle East.

“There’s an inflationary impact from tariffs and high oil prices, especially if an attack is imminent, and I think there’s also some hedging by investors, who may be turning to gold,” Bart Melek, global head of commodity strategy at TD Securities, told Reuters.

Bullion has found a footing above $5,000 an ounce in recent sessions, recovering more than half of the losses sustained during a historic rout at the turn of the month. Silver also found support above $80 an ounce.

“It seems a breakout to the upside is in the making,” said Yuxuan Tang, head of macro strategy for Asia at JP Morgan Private Bank. Tariff uncertainty and Iran risk are among the factors that “may prove sufficient to catalyze a more sustained shift,” she added.

“The resurgent tariff uncertainty may make the period of consolidation relatively short-lived,” Bank of America said in a note, adding that it expects prices to hit $6,000 an ounce over the next 12 months. Earlier, analysts at JPMorgan raised their long-term gold price forecast to $4,500 per ounce, while keeping the year-end target of $6,300 intact.

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So far this year, gold has risen by over 18%, building on its best annual performance since 1979.

(With files from Bloomberg and Reuters)