Mexican security risks highlighted in new reports

[Ben Graham]

Escalating security risks and a legacy of lengthy project approvals are increasing investor scrutiny of mining exposure to Mexico, TD Cowen says.

Recent incidents linked to cartel activity — such as the late January abduction of 10 Vizsla Silver (TSX, NYSE: VZLA) workers and subsequent killing of some of them — underscore the strategic importance of Mexico’s mining industry, particularly for silver, TD Cowen mining analysts led by Wayne Lam said in a report published Wednesday.

Mexico accounts for about 28% of global mine-site silver supply and nearly half of all output from primary silver mines worldwide, data compiled by TD show. That’s in addition to about 4% of gold output and 3% of copper production.

“While recent incidents appear contained to states with less impact on overall production, we view risk if activity increases in surrounding areas, which may cause investors to reassess Mexican exposure,” Lam and his colleagues wrote in the report.

Kidnappers kill Vizsla mine workers in Mexico

Rising violence

Violence in Mexico is on the rise. Sunday’s killing by the Mexican army of Jalisco New General Cartel (JNGC) leader Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes – known as “El Mencho” – triggered retaliatory violence, infrastructure damage and heightened security force activity across the western and central parts of the country.

At least 22 Mexican states have seen unrest in the wake of Oseguera’s death, British security risk management firm MS Risk said in a note dated Tuesday. While relative calm has since returned, with soldiers and National Guard members deployed to restore order, tensions remain elevated, the firm said.

Cartel capacity for violence, trafficking and corruption is likely to persist despite Oseguera’s death, MS Risk added.

His death “creates a high-volatility security environment,” the firm wrote in its report. “For businesses operating in Mexico, the primary risks stem from cartel fragmentation, reprisal violence and opportunistic criminal activity during the transitional power struggle.”

As a result, the risk profile “effectively shifts from centralized cartel dominance to decentralized instability and localized unpredictability, with the short-term risks [in the next three months] being elevated. The medium-term risk will be dependent on whether JNGC consolidates or fractures.”

Cartel presence

Security concerns for mining investors have recently centred around Sinaloa and Jalisco states, where cartel presence has intensified. Yet those states together account for only about 1.5% of Mexico’s annual mining output, which limits near-term effects on national production.

Besides Vizsla, companies with properties in Sinaloa include Americas Gold and Silver (TKTK: USA), whose Cosala mine will contribute about half of output this year; Torex Gold Resources (TSX: TXG), the developer of the Los Reyes project; and McEwen Mining (TSX: MUX; NYSE: MUX), which is advancing the Fenix project.

Miners active in Jalisco include Endeavour Silver (NYSE: EXK; TSX: EDR), whose Terronera mine accounts for about one-third of projected 2026 production, and GoGold Resources (TSX: GGD; US-OTC: GLGDF), which is developing the Los Ricos property.

Serious implications

An expansion of unrest into Zacatecas and Chihuahua — two of the country’s most important mining regions — would have far more serious implications, the TD analysts warn. Zacatecas alone accounts for about one-third of Mexico’s mine production, while Chihuahua contributes about 12%.

Companies with notable exposure to Zacatecas include Pan American Silver (TSX, NYSE: PAAS), which operates the La Colorada mine; Fresnillo (LSE: FRES), which owns stakes in three Mexican mines; Orla Mining (TSX: OLA; NYSE: ORLA), which runs the Camino Rojo property; Newmont (NYSE: NEM), which owns the Penasquito open-pit operation; and Capstone Copper (TSX: CS; ASX: CSC), the operator of the Cozamin underground mine.

Miners operating in Chihuahua include First Majestic Silver (NYSE, TSX: AG), the majority owner of the Los Gatos mine, and Coeur Mining (NYSE: CDE), which owns the Palmarejo gold-silver complex.

Higher duties

The latest security issues compound policy headwinds that have weighed on the sector in recent years. Higher mining duties introduced in late 2024 and permitting challenges under the previous Andrés Manuel López Obrador administration are still being felt today under her successor, President Claudia Sheinbaum, TD argues.

Mexico has taken back 1,126 mining concessions since late 2024, official says

“While permitting and project advancement appear to be improving under the Sheinbaum administration, we view a lack of development in the 2022-24 period resulting in a dearth of advanced stage projects today,” Lam and his colleagues wrote. “Recent security risks have highlighted regions of heightened cartel activity, which could further impact ability to accelerate new projects.”

A worsening security environment could shift investor preferences toward companies operating in Tier I jurisdictions with lower geopolitical risk such as Canada or the US, TD also said. Such a trend would likely support higher valuation multiples for producers with more diversified or safer geographic footprints.

Torex is the North American miner with the biggest overall Mexico exposure in TD’s coverage universe, at 95% of net asset value. This compares with 91% for First Majestic, 72% for Endeavour, 37% for Orla and 27% for Pan American Silver. Fresnillo, which isn’t covered by the TD analysts, also has significant operations in Mexico.