Gold (XAU/USD) bulls eye acceptance above $5200/oz, can NVIDIA earnings impact haven demand?

[Ben Graham]

• Gold (XAU/USD) is trading above $5200/oz, fueled by geopolitical risks, trade uncertainty, and rising rate cut expectations.
• NVIDIA's upcoming earnings report is a critical sentiment test that could either increase safe-haven demand for gold or temporarily halt its rally.
• The technical outlook is bullish, aiming for $5300.

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The price of gold has breached the $5200/oz handle with bulls eyeing acceptance above this level before further gains are possible.

The main drivers for Gold remain the Geopolitical risks as the US and Iran are set for another round of talks in Geneva tomorrow. This coupled with trade uncertainty and rising rate cut bets are forming the perfect cocktail for Gold bulls to seize the initiative.

State of the Union Speech

President Trump struck a hawkish tone in his State of the Union address. The President said that the economy is faring well and that the US is living in a golden age. He went further stating that lower interest rates will solve the housing problem, inflation is falling, wages rising and that the economy is roaring like never before.

Of course some of these claims may require a more critical look as we have become accustomed to President Trump making bold claims that at times do not pass a critical examination.

Regarding talks with Iran, the President made another bold claim that likely raised haven demand as he stated the Iranian Government is working on missiles that could reach the United States.

Detractors were quick to point out that this rhetoric was used to justify regime change operations in the past only for them to be proven false such as the case with Iraq in 2003 and Libya in 2011.

Either way, markets are on edge as the potential fallout from a US-Iran conflict could be huge as Tehran has threatened neighboring countries such as Jordan, the UAE and Saudi Arabia of strikes should they aid any US assault.

US dollar index retreats, aiding the Gold rally

The US Dollar index had been on a rally which appears to have run out of steam today. A host of US policymakers issued remarks today but rate cut expectations persist.

Kansas City Fed Jeffrey Schmid said that the Fed has work to do on inflation. However the dollar remained under selling pressure.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart, February 25, 2026

Source: TradingView

After the US market closes today NVIDIA will be reporting earnings. This is a huge test for AI and valuations and one that could have a huge impact on sentiment.

A poor earnings report could lead to further safe haven demand and thus lead Gold higher. A positive release should see safe haven demand falter, at least temporarily and could lead to a drop off in gold prices.

The biggest data release this week from the US will come on Friday with the release of the PPI data. This could provide another glimpse into inflationary pressure that may hit consumers down the line and impact rate cut expectations.

Technical Outlook - Gold (XAU/USD)

From a technical standpoint, Gold is currently maintaining a bullish trajectory, but its continued upward momentum hinges on buyers' ability to gain acceptance above the $5200/oz handle.

If bulls are able to gain acceptance above this level the next challenge will be to break through this week’s resistance at $5,249/oz. Successfully clearing this threshold would preserve the current "higher highs and higher lows" market structure, potentially sparking a rally toward the $5,300/oz psychological milestone and the January 30 peak of $5,451/oz.

Conversely, failure to overcome the $5,249/oz barrier could trigger a bearish reversal or retracement.

In this scenario, the first line of defense for the XAU/USD pair sits at $5,150/oz. If that level fails to hold, the price may slide further toward the February 24 low of $5,093/oz.

A critical juncture for Gold and one worth keeping a close watch on.

Gold (XAU/USD) Four-Hour Chart, February 25, 2026

Source: TradingView (click to enlarge)

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