EUR/USD Stalls Below Key Highs as ECB Meeting Looms — What’s Next?

[Redator]

The picture for currencies today is the exact reverse of yesterday - with traders fading extremes and booking profits before events like the upcoming NFP.

Safe-Haven majors like the CHF and JPY are lagging on the day with the USD leading, closely followed by the CAD - the Euro is right in the middle of the currency board down 0.55% on the day.

The ECB Meeting is coming up on Thursday 5th of June with broad expectations of a 25 bps cut before pausing in the July meeting - taking the Deposit Rate from 2.25% to 2%. We will get the Rate Decision at 8:15.

We got the overnight Eurozone Inflation report with the Headline CPI coming in just below 2% - the ECB will want to make sure to push these numbers up slightly, although the Central Bank probably has taken into account the lag for new inflationary boosts from Tariffs on exports to the US.

Let’s take a look at the levels from Daily to Hourly charts to prepare for what’s next.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

Daily Timeframe

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EURUSD Daily Chart, June 3, 2025. Source: TradingView

The Daily timeframe is showing mixed signs in terms of strength - the trend is still bullish for the currency pair though candles have been overlapping in the past few weeks.

This story gets confirmed with the Daily RSI not showing signs of expansion - bulls will have to monitor the tone from the ECB at the press conference 30 minutes after the release.

Less cuts are expected going forward therefore action will be focused on better data for the Eurozone.

The daily MA 50 has caught up to the current prices and is currently acting as immediate support, accompanied with the trendline.

In the meantime, the action is constrained within the Main resistance and support zones which we will see in more detail promptly.

4H Timeframe

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EURUSD 4H Chart, June 3, 2025. Source: TradingView

Taking a closer look at the 4H timeframe emphasizes the lack of clarity going into the ECB Meeting.

Prices have been seesawing through the current main pivot situated at 1.1330 and constrained in a slightly above 1000 pip range between the 1.1270 - 1.13 to 1.1420 - 1.1440.

The RSI is neutral and the MA 50 and 200 are immediate support, though we are looking more at holding the trendline from the hourly upward channel formed last week. Expect rangebound prices going into Thursday.

Any breakout from the range is pointing towards these main zones:

• Main Support Zone : 1.1050 to 1.1120
• Main Resistance Zone: 1.1530 to 1.15730

Hourly Timeframe

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EURUSD 4H Chart, June 3, 2025. Source: TradingView

Prices just rejected the higher bound of the range and are now consolidating at the low of the upward channel.

Broad USD strength seems to be more on a mean-reversal basis therefore I am not expecting to see much direction.

Prices may try to test the MA 200 situated 300 pips from here therefore keep that one on your 1H charts.

Momentum is close to oversold on the hourly timeframe - keep in mind that markets tend to fade extremes going into key data, and NFP will still be looming on Friday - keep a close eye on the language from the ECB on Thursday, the conference is at 8:45 A.M. on the 5th of June.

Safe Trades!

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