Iraq Interrupts Oil Production in Rumaila – 1.5 Million Barris/Day Off Market

Traders, the situation in the Middle East has just reached the Breakpoint we were monitoring. Iraq has just announced the total closure of production in the Rumaila, the second largest oil field in the world, removing instantly 1.5 million barrels a day the global supply due to the escalation of military activities in the region.

By Igor Pereira

Financial Market Analyst

This event, combined with the instability in Ormuz and Khamenei's death, creates the most violent scenario of physical scarcity in the last 50 years. Below is the technical analysis of the immediate impact on Oil and Gold. The reason is the collapse of global logistics: the closure of Strait of Ormuz It prevented the entry of tankers into the Gulf, leading the storage tanks into the southern ports to critical levels. There's nowhere else to put the oil, so the taps have been turned off.

The statement signed by the Operations Manager of Rumaila Operation Division is direct on the gravity of the situation:

• Root Cause: The closure of the Ormuz Strait interrupted international navigation and prevented the entry of oil tankers into the Gulf basin.

• Logic Impact: The shortage of ships in the southern ports caused a drastic drop in exports, causing the stored oil to reach "critical levels" in the tanks.

• Drastic Action: Total suspension (100%) of production and pumping in South Rumaila from 3 p.m. on 3 March 2026.

Rumaila is not just another field; it is the backbone of Iraqi production.

• Loss of Offer: The withdrawal of 1.5 million barrels/day represents a massive supply shock that the market cannot absorb in the short term.

• Idle Capacity Under Pressure: Remember the Goldman Sachs data? The impact of a blockade on Ormuz was of +$12 to +$15 by barrel assuming the use of alternative pipelines. With Rumaila closed, the "leave" of the system disappears, making the barrel price extremely sensitive to any further interruption.

• War Geopolitics: The interruption occurs amid missiles flying over Tel Aviv, Haifa and Doha. Iraq, under pressure, is protecting its infrastructure or being forced to stop by the proximity of the fighting.

The cost of American debt has just become more expensive.

• Debt interest: The US already owes Additional $700 million per month only interest on late tariff repayments.

• Energy Inflation: A shock in oil Iraq plays the PCE (inflation) far beyond the 3.0% projected, forcing the Fed to a position of immobility while the economy breaks.

• ERM status: We are abandoning the Compression Phase (MTC 65) to enter the territory of Total Systemic Risk.

The closure of Rumaila is the sign that the regional conflict has become a war of economic friction.

My Vision:

Don't wait for the market to open to understand what happened.

1. Oil: Get ready for one gap High history. The goal of +$15 Goldman Sachs now seems like the optimistic base scenario.

2. Physical Shortness: Remember, you can print dollars to pay interest, but you cannot print the 1.5 million barrels of Rumaila.

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