Trump's Statements Only Temporarily Halted the Rise in Oil Prices

Yesterday's rise in oil prices is a direct response to US actions in the Middle East. After Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, causing a sharp spike in commodity prices, President Donald Trump announced that the US would provide insurance guarantees and naval escorts to ensure the safe passage of oil tankers and other vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, aiming to prevent a potential energy crisis caused by the war with Iran.

In the context of escalating tensions with Iran, which threatens to turn into a global energy crisis, the US administration is ready to offer insurance guarantees and naval escorts for all oil tankers and other commercial vessels. However, as we can see, such promises have not significantly alleviated the pressure on prices.

Although this initiative is intended to neutralize risks associated with potential attacks on tankers by Iran, which controls a significant part of the coastline of the strait, ensuring the safety of shipping in this strategically important corridor is quite a complex task. One sunk tanker, even with US protection, could lead trading companies to abandon this endeavor entirely.

It is evident that Trump's statements highlight the US's determination to prevent any attempts to destabilize the situation and further price increases; however, it is unlikely that these efforts will be successful.

Trump also stated yesterday that the US International Development Finance Corporation would offer insurance "at a very reasonable price" to help ensure the continuity of energy supply and other commercial trade in the Persian Gulf. Additionally, he mentioned that "if necessary, the US Navy will begin escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz as soon as possible." "Whatever happens, the United States will ensure the free transit of energy resources worldwide," the president wrote on social media.

As mentioned earlier, against the backdrop of these announcements, oil prices briefly reduced their growth and, after the markets closed, the global benchmark Brent was trading around $80 per barrel. Although the president's statement somewhat eased the risk premium in energy markets, traders remain skeptical that this plan will quickly restore oil supplies to the region to normal levels.

Prices have increased by more than 10% since the US and Israel began attacks on Iran over the weekend, which caused significant disruptions in the Middle East and effectively halted oil flows in the critically important Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of the world's energy supplies pass.

However, it is clear that if Tehran decides to continue combat operations—which it will—full resumption of vessel traffic in the Strait of Hormuz will take weeks or even months, not hours or days, despite the announced and beneficial plans for providing insurance or escort vessels.