Gold (XAU/USD) marks a double top despite Iran conflict – Below $5,000 soon?–

Gold bulls have long been waiting for geopolitical troubles to justify the metal's record prices.

However, markets often play rough games with high expectations, as we recently saw with Nvidia and Microsoft earnings. This aligns with the adage "Buy the rumor, sell the news."

Similar profit-taking moves have previously occurred in silver, platinum, and palladium, so investors might have thought gold would be exempt, given its reputation as a true safe-haven.

However, the recent unexpected market behavior in relation to geopolitical conflict is surprising. Despite ongoing tensions and heavy military activity in the Middle East, stocks actually rallied after Trump assured the protection of the Strait of Hormuz.

Risk assets are decidedly rebounding, with cryptocurrencies surging to monthly highs as well as global Stock Markets; This proves how unusual these war flows have been.

So, why are safe havens selling off?

The US Department of Defense has certainly demonstrated its capabilities to rapidly damage key Iranian positions, alongside the Israeli Air Force.

Investors fear a prolonged conflict in the Middle East, so the idea of shorter operations is providing a sense of relief, as reflected in the market.

Investors also just received yet another report of US economic strength with another beat in Services PMI (56.1 vs 53.5 estimates), along with firming Private ADP Employment. Difficult to justify metal-boosting rate cuts with such solid data.

Friday will provide more clarity on that aspect with the monthly NFP data for February; Expect this one to rock Market expectations again!

Let’s conduct a multi-timeframe analysis of gold, as its recent price action has formed a double top. Will this signal the start of a real downtrend?

Read More:

• Can Iran fully block the Strait of Hormuz?
• Chart alert: Risk-off persists on Strait of Hormuz fears, EUR/CHF eyeing 0.9010 key bearish breakdown level
• Trump guarantees maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz: Markets U-turn on Navy escort pledge

Gold is now facing high-importance hurdles ahead.

After failing to regain its January $5,600 top despite the fundamental shift, sellers could now take the upper hand. This could particularly be the case when looking at the Weekly RSI forming a bearish divergence.

However, a counter-argument could maintain demand for Gold – Remaining above its Key weekly pivot zone, particularly above $5,100, proves that the action can still remain in balance on the higher timeframe.

Any break lower will also see streaks of support, with the most immediate major support a the December highs around $4,550.

Gold sends out a more gloomy picture on the Daily timeframe, with the two recent bearish candles located at relative spikes forming a double-top.

While today's small rebound shows hesitancy, looking forward, as long as bulls can't manage to overtake the $5,379 highs from yesterday, technicals point to downside ahead.

Crossing back below $5,100 would allow sellers to re-take control of the short-term action, hinting at a retest of the mid-Feb lows ($4,844).

Breaking this level would then mark an official re-entry within the 2025 bull channel – $4,200 is its current lower bound (however it remains far from now).

Support Levels:

• $5,100 Major Pivot turned support (Short-term: sellers in control below – Testing)
• $4,850 to $4,900 Key Support (Mid-Feb Lows)
• Pivotal Support and December record $4,400 to $4,500 (Bearish below)
• Channel lows $4,200

Resistance Levels:

• $5,250 Pivot Zone (+/- $50)
• $5,400 Wartime Resistance
• Current All-time Highs Resistance – $5,500 to $5,600

Gold is now rejecting its intraday key 50-period moving average acting as resistance.

A key test of the upward trendline will provide a last chance for bulls to re-take the short-term hand, before the double top materializes into a more consequential correction.

Watch for a break and 4H close below $5,100.

Safe Trades!

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