Bitcoin Pullback or Setup? On-Chain Metrics Hint at What’s Coming Next

[Redator]

Bitcoin is experiencing a short-term price decline. In the past 24 hours, the asset has fallen by approximately 9.3% to a trading value of $105,062. This pullback places Bitcoin roughly 8% below its all-time high recorded last month.

The dip comes amid broader market volatility, but on-chain indicators and exchange data suggest deeper structural trends that may influence the next phase of Bitcoin’s price trajectory.

Recent market analysis points to renewed accumulation among long-term holders, a spike in exchange withdrawals, and rising spot trading activity on Binance.

These developments are being interpreted as signals of underlying strength despite recent price weakness. CryptoQuant contributor Amr Taha has provided a detailed breakdown of these emerging patterns, offering a perspective on how long-term dynamics may be shaping Bitcoin’s current market behavior.

Binance Trading Volume Rises, Long-Term Holders Accumulate

Since early June, Binance has seen its share of Bitcoin spot trading volume increase from 26% to 35%, positioning it more firmly as the dominant platform in the market. This increase in trading activity has occurred as Bitcoin approaches and tests key price levels.

According to Taha, this surge may indicate renewed interest from retail and institutional traders alike, particularly as volatility draws more short-term market participants to major exchanges.

In addition to exchange volume shifts, on-chain data reveals growing confidence among long-term Bitcoin holders. The Long-Term Holder (LTH) Net Position Realized Cap, a metric that reflects the value of coins held by entities with a holding period of over 155 days, has returned above $20 billion.

Historically, this type of accumulation pattern has preceded periods of price expansion, as long-term investors tend to hold through corrections and avoid frequent selling.

The rise in LTH realized cap suggests these entities are not exiting positions during this market dip, which may reduce available supply and support future upward movement.

Bitcoin Large Exchange Withdrawals Signal Tightening Supply

Beyond trading activity and holder behavior, Taha pointed out that another notable trend is emerging on centralized exchanges. Over a two-day period, Kraken and Bitfinex recorded net Bitcoin outflows exceeding 20,000 BTC, among the largest short-term withdrawals in recent months.

Such movements are often interpreted as signals of investors shifting assets into self-custody, possibly in anticipation of long-term holding or strategic redeployment.

Combined, the rise in Binance’s market share, increased LTH accumulation, and exchange outflows present a picture of a market undergoing structural positioning rather than widespread exit activity.

While the short-term price trend reflects a pullback from recent highs, the simultaneous withdrawal of supply and steady long-term holder confidence could act as foundational elements for potential future growth.

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView