Crypto Analyst Warns: This Bitcoin Bull Cycle Looks Nothing Like 2017 or 2021

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Bitcoin’s price continues to show signs of consolidation following its all-time high of over $111,000 recorded in May. At the time of writing, the asset is trading at $104,851, down 0.3% in the past 24 hours and roughly 6.3% below its recent peak.

This period of relative price stability comes amid cautious sentiment across the broader crypto market, as analysts examine whether the current bull cycle is beginning to shift gears or simply experiencing a temporary pause.

CryptoQuant contributor Crypto Dan has released a comparative analysis of current and past market cycles, noting several distinct behaviors in Bitcoin’s recent price action.

Drawing parallels to the bull runs of 2017 and 2021, Dan suggests that while similarities exist, the current cycle has developed unique characteristics. These changes could signal a different structure in how the market plays out, particularly in terms of timing and investor participation.

Comparing Bitcoin Cycles: 2024–2025 Diverges from Historical Patterns

According to Dan, previous cycles saw more predictable corrections and rallies. In 2017, Bitcoin experienced relatively short corrections before entering a prolonged rally that concluded in late December of that year.

The 2021 cycle, affected early on by the COVID-19 pandemic, featured a longer initial correction before a strong upward surge. In both cases, once Bitcoin gained momentum, corrections became less frequent and shorter in duration.

The current cycle, spanning 2024–2025, has so far been marked by alternating strong rallies and sudden declines, often occurring over short timeframes.

These patterns have dampened broader market sentiment, particularly during periods when altcoins significantly underperformed Bitcoin. Dan posits that these repeated pullbacks may not be purely organic.

Instead, they could indicate intentional suppression by large players aiming to extend the cycle’s duration and prevent overheating. If this interpretation holds, the bull cycle could end not with a gradual fade, but a sharp spike driven by euphoric buying behavior.

Retail Activity Declines as Institutions Drive Market Structure

A separate analysis by CryptoQuant’s Burak Kesmeci focuses on the behavior of retail investors since Bitcoin hit its $111,000 high in late May. Data shows that retail transfer volumes,  transactions valued between $0 and $10,000, have decreased from $423 million to $408 million.

Additionally, the 30-day change in retail demand has slipped into negative territory, shifting from +5 points to -0.11 points. This reduction in retail activity suggests that smaller investors remain sensitive to short-term volatility, stepping back in response to recent price corrections.

Kesmeci argues that for the bull cycle to sustain momentum, consistent participation from retail segments is crucial. At present, institutional interest appears to be the primary source of demand. The divergence between these two investor classes may shape how the next leg of Bitcoin’s market cycle develops.

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView