EURUSD jumps on CPI: what are the next hurdles?

[Redator]

The Euro is currently leading gains across the currency board following the weaker-than-expected US CPI release, nearing a break of last week's highs against the US Dollar.

While the initial CPI reaction saw reversals in several assets, such as the Nasdaq briefly surpassing the 22,000 milestone before retreating, EUR/USD continues to consolidate at its highs.

This occurs as some major banks, including the Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) and Bank of America, had previously indicated limited upside for the Euro, and may have been surprised by this morning's USD weakness.

Further weighing on market sentiment, recent headlines suggest the US intends to maintain tariffs of up to 30% on Chinese goods, which has curbed the initial euphoria following this morning's data.

Trump still mentioned that the "Relationship is Excellent" with the world's largest exporter.

Adding to geopolitical confusion, Donald Trump stated in a New York Post podcast that he is much less confident in a deal with Iran, a comment that has added fuel to the fire, with US Oil still up by over 2.60% on the session.

EURUSD Multi-Timeframe Analysis

EURUSD Daily

EURUSD Daily Chart, June 11, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The Euro has maintained its strong performance following last week's 25-basis point rate cut by the European Central Bank. This resilience is largely attributed to market interpretation of the move as a potential signal for the conclusion of the ECB's easing cycle, prompting a bullish reaction.

The Euro will now need to demonstrate significant strength as it approaches a critical Main Resistance Zone, spanning from 1.1550 to 1.1573 (the 2025 highs).

Prices face several hurdles as they attempt to advance towards these pivotal levels, which we will observe through intra-day timeframes.

From a technical perspective, indicators suggest there remains room for further upside. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is not yet in overbought territory, and both the 20-day and 50-day Daily Moving Averages are positively sloped, reinforcing the current bullish trend.

EURUSD 4H

EURUSD 4H Chart, June 11, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The Euro has maintained its strength despite recent rejections following last week's ECB press conference, which saw a rally stall just shy of the 1.15 handle.

Buyers have consistently defended the 4-hour Moving Average 50, particularly since prices broke and consolidated above the 1.1335 intermediate timeframe pivot zone. This MA 50 continues to serve as a key indicator for the prevailing uptrend.

While prices currently hold comfortably above this level, any decisive break below the 4-hour 50 MA could trigger increased selling pressure, suggesting a potential correction.

EURUSD 1H

EURUSD 1H Chart, June 11, 2025 – Source: TradingView

EURUSD has wicked twice on the 1.1380 immediate Support, which tends to provoke some swift reactions similar to the one from this morning.

Momentum is strong though the hourly RSI is currently overbought and prices are currently stabilizing – keep an eye on reactions to the 1.1490 immediate resistance and the 1.15 psychological level.

Keep an eye on the Dollar Index (DXY): A prolonged weakness in the USD would bolster Euro strength and vice-versa.

Safe Trades!

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