Asia mid-session: Middle East tensions rattle markets, WTI rebound, BoJ slowed down bond tapering

[Redator]

Global markets have experienced heightened two-way volatility amid the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, with no clear signs of de-escalation.

During yesterday’s early US session, reports emerged suggesting Iran’s willingness to resume nuclear negotiations with the US, raising hopes that tensions might ease. This boosted market sentiment, pushing all major US stock indices into positive territory: the S&P 500 gained 0.9%, the Nasdaq 100 rose 1.4%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.7%, and the Russell 2000 advanced 1.1%, nearly erasing Friday’s losses. In contrast, WTI crude oil fell by 2%, while Gold (XAU/USD) declined by 1.4%.

No clear signs of de-escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict

However, sentiment quickly reversed in today’s early Asian session after US President Trump abruptly left the G7 summit in Canada to return to Washington and called for the evacuation of Tehran. These developments heightened fears of potential US involvement in the conflict.

Adding to market jitters, reports surfaced that three oil tankers were on fire in the Gulf of Oman near the Strait of Hormuz, stoking concerns over possible Iranian attempts to disrupt oil flows.

WTI crude oil rebounded 1.1% to US$72.20/barrel after hitting a low of US$69.20 yesterday. Gold (XAU/USD) recovered 0.2% to US$3,393, bouncing from an intraday low of US$3,374. Meanwhile, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures slipped by 0.4%.

Despite mounting geopolitical risks, the US dollar has shown limited strength. The US Dollar Index has remained confined within a narrow 98.60–97.60 range since last Thursday, 12 June, and continues to face resistance near its 20-day moving average around 99.00.

BoJ reduced pace of bond tapering, USD/JPY continued to be range-bound

In monetary policy developments, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5% for a third consecutive meeting following its January hike. It also announced a slower pace of bond tapering in the next fiscal year, reducing monthly bond purchases to 200 billion yen per quarter, down from the current 400 billion yen pace.

These moves were largely anticipated and aimed at calming recent volatility in the long-term Japanese government bond (JGB) market, where the 30-year yield recently hit a record high of 3.2% in May.

USD/JPY continues to trade sideways, oscillating around its 20-day and 50-day moving averages, and holding above the 27 May swing low of 142.35.

Economic data releases

Fig 1: Key data for today’s Asian mid-session (Source: MarketPulse)

Chart of the day – WTI rebounded from key support zone, bullish trend intact

Fig 2: WTI crude minor trend as of 17 June 2025 (Source: TradingView)

Yesterday’s decline of -8.8% in WTI crude oil has managed to stall at the former major descending trendline resistance from its 28 September 2023 swing high and the key 200-day moving average, a key support zone of US$70.60/69.15.

Thereafter, it staged a bullish reversal of 6.3% that coincided with the hourly RSI momentum indicator hitting close to its oversold region in yesterday’s US session.

These observations suggest that last week’s bullish impulsive up move sequence remains intact. Watch the US$70.60/$69.15 key short-term pivotal support, and a clearance above the near-term resistance of US$75.18 (minor swing highs area of 13 June/16 June) sees the next intermediate resistance coming in at US$77.00/77.60 (see Fig 2).

On the other hand, a break below US$69.15 invalidates the bullish scenario for the return of a choppy corrective decline sequence to expose the next intermediate supports at US$67.00/66.27, and US$64.15 (also the 20-day moving average).

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© {CURRENT_YEAR} OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.