Citi sees gold price falling below $3,000 as rally fades

[Redator]

Citigroup Inc. expects gold prices to decline below $3,000 an ounce in the coming quarters, forecasting a cooldown after this year’s record-setting run.

The bank cites weakening investment demand, improving economic prospects, and anticipated US interest rate cuts as key drivers of the expected pullback.

In a recent report, Citigroup analysts led by Max Layton predicted that gold will fall to a range of $2,500 to $2,700 an ounce by the second half of 2026.

The outlook contrasts sharply with bullish forecasts from other major financial institutions. Goldman Sachs projects gold to reach $3,700 by late 2025 and $4,000 by mid-2026, citing robust central bank buying. Similarly, Bank of America sees prices climbing to $4,000 within the next year.

Gold has risen nearly 30% year-to-date, reaching record highs in April amid geopolitical tensions and US policy uncertainty.

However, Citi believes that improving investor confidence and easing US fiscal fears could dampen demand.

As of Tuesday, spot gold hovered around $3,388 an ounce, with volatility tied to rising Middle East tensions and shifting US foreign policy.

Citi’s base case, carrying a 60% probability, anticipates gold consolidating above $3,000 over the next quarter before declining. Its bull scenario (20% likelihood) allows for a fresh peak if geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty persist, while the bear case (also 20%) foresees a price drop driven by quicker tariff resolutions and policy shifts under a Trump-led administration.

While the report primarily focused on gold’s macroeconomic trajectory, Citi analysts also highlighted strong bullish sentiment for other metals, notably aluminum and copper.

(With files from Bloomberg)