US Stock Market: Equities falter on adjusted Israel-Iran resolution hopes

[Redator]

Having found support yesterday and undoing some, if not all, losses from Friday’s sell-off, US equities have met selling pressure early in today’s session.

• The Dow Jones (US30) currently trades at around $42,417, down -0.22%
• The Nasdaq-100 (NAS100) currently trades at around $21,854, down -0.33%
• The S&P 500 (SPX500) currently trades at around $6,015, down -0.33%

Read analysis from yesterday’s session: Stock indices recover, Gold stays bid and Oil corrects – Intra-day chart updates

US Equities (DJ30, NAS100, SPX500): Key Takeaways

• In line with an increase in general risk aversion, US equities heavily sold off in Friday’s session following escalating Israel-Iran tensions

• With various political developments both over the weekend and yesterday, renewed hopes for a resolution between the two nations, coupled with a muted impact on global oil markets, allowed US equities to rally, regaining some, if not all, recent losses

• In today’s session, an apparent breakdown in negotiations has US equities losing ground, with President Trump leaving the G7 summit early to focus on the Middle East conflict

Dow Jones 30 (US30USD), OANDA, TradingView, 17/06/2025

US Equities (DJ30, NAS100, SPX500): US stock market under pressure on boosted risk-aversion

Following a brief period of optimism offering some upside to US equities, Trump’s premature exit from the G7 summit to contend with the conflict raises some questions.

Despite going on record to say that his exit had “nothing to do with a cease fire,” suggesting that something much more substantial was being negotiated, Trump’s premature departure is, if nothing else, an interesting show of priority, considering the United States’ need to make trade deals with many G7 nations.

Iran should have signed the “deal” I told them to sign. What a shame, and waste of human life. Simply stated, IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON. I said it over and over again! Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!

@realDonalTrump, TruthSocial, 14/06/2025

While some suggest new information made available during the G7 summit caused Trump’s exit, nothing substantial has been confirmed. What cannot be questioned, however, is that Trump seems to have significant involvement in negotiations.

In the meantime, the outcome of negotiations remains one of the most significant deciding factors for the attitude towards market risk-taking, and by extension, US equities.

US Equities (DJ30, NAS100, SPX500): Weak retail sales bode poorly for US stock market in the short term

Put simply, today’s retail sales report is unflattering of the US economy, and has introduced some downside pressure to US-facing equities.

As today’s report declares, spending has significantly decreased month over month. This suggests that the average American is not comfortable spending as much, especially in light of recent tariffs.

US Equities (DJ30, NAS100, SPX500): Gaze averted from the Fed interest rate decision

Amid current political happenings, it would be easy to forget that the Federal Reserve policymakers are due to vote on interest rates tomorrow.

Although it has been widely predicted that interest rates will remain unchanged, it would be wrong to suggest that no recent data, especially regarding inflation and the labour market, would at least somewhat support the notion of cutting rates.

Traders would be well-advised to pay attention not only to the eventual decision but also to Fed commentary suggesting how the Fed will approach monetary policy in the remainder of 2025. Interest rate cuts are likely to support further upside in US equities.

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