Preparing for the upcoming FOMC Rate Decision in 30 minutes - SEP Outlook

[Redator]

Get ready as there is less than an hour to the FOMC Rate Decision, broadly expected to stay unchanged. What will be more market moving are the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), released in every Quarterly meetings.

Both will release at 2:00 P.M. E.T. – We will update this page with the latest report as it gets released.

Don't forget to tune in to FED Chair Powell's speech starting at 2:30 P.M.

You can access the Powell livestream here.

March Meeting (past) SEP

Summary of Economic Projections, March 2025 Meeting – Source: Federalreserve.gov

Focus now turns to the 2025 outlook, especially in light of the Fed’s latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), which was released during a period of heightened uncertainty around U.S. tariff policy.

Since then, a number of trade agreements have been reached, easing concerns that dominated earlier this year. The so-called “TACO Trump” headlines have rattled markets, and fears of a no-deal scenario are quickly fading into the rearview.

The FED pointed toward a 2.7% year-end PCE Inflation at the last release and some cooling in upcoming years. Core PCE is the FED's favorite inflation measure as they use this data for that side of their Inflation-Employment Dual Mandate.

Also, look at the Projected FED Funds Rate for the end of 2025, 2026 and the longer-run ("Neutral Rate"). Any change in this will move markets as cut expectations adjust.

Expect volatile flows – Safe Trades!

Pre-FOMC Cross-Asset Performance

Cross-Asset Daily Performance, June 18, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Update coming up: June Meeting (current) Summary of Economic Projections

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