WTI Crude breaks war highs: US War entry looms for Oil Market

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Prices for US Oil just broke new highs as tensions keep building.

Last Thursday, WTI crude surged from $67 at the open to a session close high of $76.28—but that momentum quickly tapered off.

Since then, markets had been bombarded with near-constant updates: hundreds of ballistic missiles met with retaliatory airstrikes.

While commodities initially adjusted to these developments, the build-up in long positions led to profit-taking, preventing oil prices from retesting those highs—until just yesterday.

Now, speculation is mounting that U.S. involvement in the conflict is just days away. Should that materialize, the geopolitical stakes could rise sharply, especially if additional nations join the fray—a scenario still viewed as distant but increasingly plausible.

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While U.S. markets are closed for Juneteenth, index futures remain active until 1:30 PM ET and are trading lower amid a more cautious tone, in part due to another red session across European equities.

Oil volatility had been brewing during its consolidation phase, and yesterday’s action saw sharp price swings between $72 and $75.

We'll now shift to intraday charts to pinpoint potential zones of interest—whether for directional trades or tactical hedging—based on the current technical landscape.

US Oil Intra-Day Charts

WTI Oil 4H Chart

US Oil 4H Chart, June 19, 2025 – Source: TradingView

4H charts continue to show consolidation near recent highs, with RSI momentum remaining firmly in overbought territory. Prices have climbed quickly, leaving key moving averages trailing well below current levels.

As war-related headlines persist, expectations of reduced supply—particularly from Iran—continue to support elevated oil prices. Any further escalation in the region could amplify this trend.

On the flip side, any signals of easing tensions would likely deflate this dynamic, though such a scenario still appears remote.

Should a breakout occur, Fibonacci extensions highlight the next potential resistance zone between $78.20 and $79.00.

WTI Oil 1H Chart

US Oil 1H Chart, June 19, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Oil has yesterday bounced off the $72 zone, a key pivot now acting as support.

Sellers failed to break below that level—especially following the FOMC rate decision—which opened the door for a move toward the primary resistance zone between $75 and $76.

Momentum on the 1H chart remains more moderate compared to the 4H, suggesting a slower, more sustainable uptrend in development.

Keep a close eye on the 1H 50-period moving average, which could serve as a dynamic support level.

A break below it might indicate renewed selling pressure, while a bounce could reinforce the buyers' case.

WTI Oil 15m Chart

US Oil 15M Chart, June 19, 2025 – Source: TradingView

15-minute charts continue to support the case for a bullish consolidation, with price action highlighting the overnight rebound off the $75 mark—right within the current resistance zone. The 50-period moving average is once again proving to be a critical level to monitor.

Should an upside breakout materialize, Fibonacci extensions suggest potential short-term targets around $77.50.

Conversely, a failed breakout and subsequent rejection would likely lead to a retest of the $72–$73 area, now acting as a key support following its previous role as resistance.

Safe Trades!

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