Asia mid-session: US dollar retreats after Trump's “TACO” on Iran, US stock indices brace for “Triple Witching”

[Redator]

Global financial markets experienced sharp swings on Thursday, 19 June, as US President Trump softened his earlier hawkish stance on Iran, shifting from the threat of an imminent strike to a “two-week grace period” to allow space for diplomacy.

Despite this shift, hostilities between Israel and Iran persisted for a seventh consecutive day. Israeli airstrikes reportedly targeted additional Iranian nuclear facilities, with Israeli officials warning that continued military action could lead to regime change in Tehran. Meanwhile, an Iranian missile struck an Israeli hospital for the first time since the conflict began, highlighting growing risks to civilian lives and reinforcing the sustained geopolitical risk premium.

The US dollar erased post-FOMC gains despite a dovish BoE and SNB

The US dollar gave back all of its post-FOMC gains, even as both the Bank of England (BoE) and the Swiss National Bank (SNB) struck dovish tones. The BoE held its policy rate steady at 4.25%, in line with expectations, and signalled a cooling in wage growth through 2025. Governor Bailey reiterated that UK interest rates remain on a gradual downward path. The SNB cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 0% to curb franc appreciation amid lower inflation and even hinted that negative rates could return if necessary.

Yet, the US Dollar Index failed to capitalize on these dovish developments, falling back below its 20-day moving average resistance at 99.00. After touching an intraday high of 99.16, it reversed to close at 98.78. The lack of sustained upward momentum in the dollar, coupled with Trump's “wait and see” approach, has reignited the so-called “TACO” narrative—Trump Always Chickens Out—which historically weighs negatively on the greenback.

Japan’s rising inflation trend put a ceiling on USD/JPY bulls

In today’s Asian session, the US Dollar Index extended its retreat, down 0.2%. The Japanese yen edged higher by 0.1%, supported by Japan’s rising inflation: core-core CPI (excluding fresh food and energy) accelerated to 3.3% y/y in May, a 16-month high. The EUR/USD rose 0.2%, while both AUD/USD and GBP/USD ticked up 0.1%.

WTI crude continued to trade near last Friday’s high, Gold (XAU/USD) edged lower

WTI crude oil remained firm, trading at US$74.77/barrel, holding above Wednesday and Thursday’s intraday lows of US$72.71 and US$74.02, respectively. Meanwhile, Gold (XAU/USD) dipped 0.8%, testing its 20-day moving average support at US$3,350.

Mixed bag for Asian equities, US stock indices may see wild swings today due to “Triple Witching” options expiration

Asian equities were mixed. Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped 0.2%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 0.8%, and Singapore’s Straits Times Index hovered near unchanged levels. US markets were closed for a public holiday on Thursday, but e-Mini futures for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 opened today’s Asian session with modest declines of -0.2% and -0.1%, respectively.

Looking ahead, “Triple Witching” options expiry—representing over US$6.5 trillion in notional value—could fuel increased volatility in US stock markets today, potentially triggering large intraday swings across major US stock indices.

Economic data releases

Fig 1: Key data for today’s Asia mid-session (Source: MarketPulse)

Chart of the day – USD/CHF downtrend intact

Fig 2: USD/CHF minor trend as of 20 June 2025 (Source: TradingView)

The earlier minor corrective rebound of the USD/CHF from its 13 June intraday low of 0.8056 to Thursday, 19 June intraday high of 0.8216 may have ended as price actions retracted right to its 20-day moving average and broke below the minor ascending trendline that linked the “higher lows” since 13 June.

In addition, the hourly RSI momentum indicator continued to inch lower below its 50 level after it printed a bearish divergence condition on Thursday, which suggests that short-term bearish momentum has resurfaced.

Watch the 0.8240 short-term pivotal resistance (also the 50-day moving average) and break below 0.8155 near-term support increases the odds of a short-term down leg to expose the next intermediate supports at 0.8100 and 0.8060/8040 (see Fig 2).

However, a clearance above 0.8240 negates the bearish tone for a potential squeeze up towards the 0.8310 medium-term pivotal resistance.

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