The New Great Recession: Winners and Losers Post-Iran War

[Redator]

Are we going into a recession 2025? How is anyone supposed to eat in this economy? By all metrics, the U.S. economy is doing well: Inflation is down (but sticky), Bitcoin is up, war over, and economists are shifting gears from a “soft landing” to “no landing” at all.

As much as economic life may “seem to be improving,” sardonic tweets like this one are going viral:

I finally paid off my Costco hotdog #blessed pic.twitter.com/ZqacZVb6jI

— Blaze (@Blaze5921) June 24, 2025

We’re blind to the economic reality; something crucial is slipping through our fingers, and it’s not just the ketchup on a financed Costco hot dog.

What’s going on with the economy? Who are the winners and losers in this new normal?

Are We Going Into a Recession 2025? Winner: Affirm and Klarna

Allow us to explain: FICO will start including “buy now, pay later” (BNPL) loans in credit scores, giving lenders a clearer view of consumer debt.

The upshot is these installment plans—used for over $116 billion in purchases last year—weren’t reported, creating blind spots in credit assessments.

Anyone relying on Affirm, Klarna or other BNPLs is about to get screwed. Remember kids, credit scores didn’t exist before 1989 and don’t need to exist at all

Still a Winner, Technically: The United States AAA Credit Rating

Moody’s just dropped the U.S. credit rating to Aa1 in May. That makes it official as all three major rating agencies have now cut America’s credit score.

America is $36 trillion in debt, with spiraling interest costs, and the political equivalent of toddlers playing chicken with the debt ceiling.

The US National Debt is now over $37 trillion.

Our govt is spending $7.1 trillion
The US govt budget deficit is over $2 trillion

We are spending 25% of all US govt revenue on interest payments for the national debt. pic.twitter.com/I8UqhmMKDf

— Wall Street Mav (@WallStreetMav) June 20, 2025

Fitch Ratings, too, admits things aren’t falling apart with 1.6% growth and the deficit inching down to 7.1% of GDP. It’s all ugly, but functional.

If this were any other country, the rating would be B-minus and falling. But it’s not. It’s the U.S., and you can’t get evicted if you’re the landlord.

Are We Going Into a Recession 2025? Losers Are People Living Paycheck To Paycheck

40% of Americans are now in a debt cycle that only ends in default. Even incomes over $150k are maxing out their cards to keep up with inflation. This is the Great Depression 2.0 incoming.

Here are some not-so-tasty stats:

• 35% of Americans using a credit card believe they will max out at least one of their cards before the end of the year.
• A further 38% say they use credit cards to pay for expenses they previously didn’t use them for.
• Nearly two-thirds (62%) of already employed Americans said they are either considering a side gig in the next six months.
• 31% of Americans said if the freeze lifted on student loan payments (which it did, unfortunately), they’d have to cut down on their spending in the second half of the year.

In closing, while assets are up the overall economy is a house of cards. People are one pinprick away from devastation, and it’s probably why we’ll see the money printers turned back on soon.

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Key Takeaways

• Are we going into a recession 2025? How is anyone supposed to eat in this economy?
• All eyes are on Powell next month. As inflation lingers and labor metrics soften.

 

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