What’s next for Oil after War-induced volatility fades?

[Redator]

Oil is known to be a volatile commodity, and hasn't failed to show some movement in the past few weeks.

After consolidating in a two month $60.5 to $64 range, increasing tensions in US-Iran nuclear talk led to a breakout to $67 and shortly after, Israel attacked Iran which brought black gold 15% higher again, touching $78.40 – levels not seen since January 2025.

There had been a theme of higher supply and fears of a slower global economic activity which had been holding prices down, but amid geopolitical turmoil (particularly in the Middle East), price dynamics have evolved.

The question now is: What are the factors that will be moving Oil in the upcoming weeks?

There has been a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, which led to a tumble in prices – Is the ceasefire going to hold? How much will Iran be allowed to export to China?

Any new tensions in producing countries that would lead to a rebound in prices? – The Ukraine-Russia conflict is still ongoing.

Is economic activity going to hold despite a lack of concrete progress in US Trade talks?

Stay in touch with the latest macroeconomic news to see any change to Oil fundamentals. In the meantime, let's take a look at an in-depth technical analysis to spot levels of interest for trading.

Read More: Pound Surges to 3-year highs amid broad Dollar weakness

US Oil Technical Analysis

Daily Chart

US Oil Daily Chart, June 26, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Oil has been in a secular downtrend since the $130 highs attained in 2022, and despite a major rise after the June 12th Israel-Iran conflict that took prices to highs of $78.43, a temporary resolution brought the commodity back to pre-war levels – correcting to $65 in just 2 sessions – a 17% drop.

Since, prices have formed a bottom just around current trading levels – There is still an upwards trendline that is currently forming with the most recent lows.

Momentum went from extreme overbought levels to slightly bearish and momentum is now closer to neutral. Let's take a closer look.

4H Chart

US Oil 4H Chart, June 26, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The major tumble in prices after the de-escalation in the Middle East got stopped by buyers coming in at the 4H 200-period moving average, marking intermediate lows at $65 as RSI hit oversold levels.

Since, bulls are trying to push prices higher but the 4H MA 20 is acting as immediate resistance that would need to be broken for increased probabilities of higher prices – In the meantime the outlook is closer to neutral.

Zones of interest to keep on your charts:

Support levels

• $65 Support Zone (current rebound in confluence with 4H MA 200)
• $64 High of May Range
• $63 potential support at Weekly descending channel

Resistance levels

• 4H MA 20 ($67.20)
• $70 Pivot Zone
• Intermediate Resistance $72 to $73
• Main Resistance: $75 to $76

Safe Trades!

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