Analysts Predict Bitcoin Price Could Lose $100K: Here’s Why

[Redator]

Now that tensions between Israel and Iran have temporarily eased, analysts are turning their attention back to Bitcoin’s next major move. Earlier in the week, Bitcoin price briefly dipped below the $100,000 mark following Iran’s missile strikes on U.S. military bases in Qatar. Although the price rebounded to $108,000 by Wednesday, derivatives data suggests that investor confidence may be weakening. The question now is whether a deeper correction is on the horizon.

Bitcoin

Price

Market Cap

BTC

$2.12T

24h7d30d1yAll time

On Wednesday, Bitcoin’s perpetual futures funding rate dropped to its lowest in seven weeks, a rare move, especially with prices climbing. In normal conditions, traders holding long positions pay a fee to keep leverage, so negative rates point to accumulation of short positions.

Part of the shift may be tied to wider geopolitical and economic uncertainty. The U.S. trade war, reignited in April, is now approaching key deadlines. An agreement with the eurozone expires on July 9, renewing fears of escalated tensions. With over 50 tariff changes since 2017, the Trump administration’s unpredictable stance continues to fuel investor anxiety.

New data shows the United States trade deficit increased by 11% in May.

This comes despite Trump's claims that tariffs would significantly lower the trade deficit. pic.twitter.com/nz0NsHrEXY

— FactPost (@factpostnews) June 26, 2025

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Economic Worries and AI Valuation Hype Add Pressure

The latest U.S. GDP report showed a 0.5% year-over-year contraction in Q1, largely due to a growing trade deficit. Yet, small-cap U.S. stocks are rallying, the Russell 2000 index hit a four-month high, while Bitcoin struggles below $112,000. This divergence is frustrating for BTC bulls.

Additionally, concerns over inflated valuations driven by AI hype are affecting sentiment. Gartner analysts have warned that most “agentic AI” projects are still experimental and often misused. As investors grow more cautious, profit-taking above $105,000 has become more likely.

A potential catalyst for a selloff came from Bit Digital, a publicly listed Bitcoin miner, which announced plans to exit BTC mining and shift reserves into Ether. As of March 31, the company held 417.6 BTC and 24,434 ETH. This unexpected pivot raises the risk that other miners may follow, especially with mining profitability hitting a two-month low.

The firm also disclosed a $150 million public offering of 75 million ordinary shares at $2 each, aiming to use the funds to buy more Ether and focus on staking. After the announcement, Bit Digital’s stock dropped nearly 19% over the week, closing at $1.99 on Friday, including a 15% single-day fall. Shares fell to as low as $1.86 before a modest after-hours recovery.

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For Bitcoin Price, Two Possible Scenarios – But Not a Collapse

Macroeconomic trends still support a bullish long-term outlook, including pressure on central banks to maintain loose monetary policy, but short-term headwinds remain. If miners start liquidating and derivatives data continue to reflect caution, Bitcoin could retest the $100,000 level before making another push higher.

When Bitcoin’s perpetual swap funding rate turns negative while prices climb, it means more traders are betting on a drop (shorts) than on further gains (longs). Short-sellers are paying long-holders to keep positions open. This often reflects a forced short squeeze, as the price climbs, short sellers are forced to close, accelerating the rally.

Historically, these divergences have led to one of two scenarios:

1. Steep Pullback: The market often corrects sharply without strong long-side conviction once the squeeze is over.
2. Continuation Rally: If the rally gains broader support, funding flips positive and prices resume climbing after a brief pause.

In past bull cycles, like late 2020 to early 2021, Bitcoin showed similar negative funding dynamics before moving higher. Tracking funding rate flips may offer clues on whether the breakout is sustainable or just short-lived.

Either we directly break this bull flag on Bitcoin today or….

We get a small flush and then break it to the upside

The way $BTC been holding, expecting it to make ATHs pretty soon

Went through the worst times and still above $100K, SEND IT! pic.twitter.com/cbzOAdq5UH

— Momin (@mominsaqib) June 27, 2025

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Key Takeaways

• Negative Funding Rates: Despite rising prices, traders are heavily shorting Bitcoin, raising the risk of either a short squeeze or pullback.
• Geopolitical Uncertainty: Trade war tensions and weak U.S. GDP growth are fueling cautious sentiment across risk assets, including BTC.
• Miner Rotation to ETH: Bit Digital’s pivot from Bitcoin to Ethereum signals waning miner confidence and could trigger further BTC sell pressure.
• Two Likely Outcomes: History suggests either a sharp correction or a continuation rally once funding flips positive—watch derivatives closely.

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