Seasonal flows for the month of July

[Redator]

Markets are already positioning for a new month after a notably volatile June – Discover the Monthly Seasonal trends for July.

As a reminder, Seasonals look at the average monthly performance for different trading assets depending on which time of the year they do best or worse.

While investors had begun to turn the page on US tariffs—with the past month marked by "TACO Trump" headlines and a revival of trade talks with China—the Israel-Iran conflict brought fresh volatility.

Oil prices spiked, risk-off flows intensified, and ironically, these developments helped propel stock indices to new all-time highs once the conflict de-escalated.

More recently, Trump reignited tariff discussions—this time targeting Canada and Europe—as negotiations hit friction over more aggressive US demands.

The US-Canada trade talks were briefly called off after Canada prepared to implement a Digital Services Tax, which was ultimately rescinded.

Talks have since resumed, but trade policy is once again becoming a market-moving theme – Get ready for the End-Session Month-End rebalancing flows!

Read More: What levels to watch for the US dollar as markets head into July

July Seasonal Flows

Equities & US Bonds

So much for the adage Sell in May and Go Away:

US Indices have performed decently well in July throughout the past 10 years, with the Dow up 3%, S&P 500 averaging 3.44%, Nasdaq with +4.64% on average.

Other Indices around the world are also up on average in July, however less than US Indices. The Italian FTSE MIB leads with 2.80%, followed by the French CAC 40 with 2.30%, and the Canadian TSX with +2.12%.

A sidenote for US Treasuries which tend to flatten (buy more long-end than short-end), with the 30-Year having its best month in the year (+1.30% on average in the past 10 Years)

Major Forex Currencies

July tends to see a fairly muted performance in Forex – Volatility tends to abate with less Central Bank meetings during the month and some traders going on vacation (at least those who had a successful first half).

The Japanese Yen leads in Seasonality, followed by the Euro, GBP and CHF.

The US Dollar, Aussie and Kiwi tend to be laggers in this month and the Loonie is seen mostly unchanged.

Commodities and Cryptocurrencies

Metals tend to be good performers in July with both Gold and Silver commonly up. The latter usually sees its best performing month, with +4.68% in the past 10 years.

Oil on the other hand tends to correct, down -2.30% since 2015 in July, Travelling companies tend to secure their contracts for the active season during spring which leads to some calm in the Summer – There is still potential for out-of-the-usual flows in the upcoming month in the scenario of renewed conflicts in the Middle East.

Finally, July tends to be giving strong flows to Cryptocurrencies, with both Bitcoin and ETH performing above 10% on average in the past 10 years – one thing to consider however is that growth for Crypto assets has been exponential, leading to statistical incoherences.
It will be challenging to predict the reliability of past performances as these digital assets are starting to be traded by more participants.

Safe and Successful Trades for the month ahead!

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© {CURRENT_YEAR} OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.