USD/CHF Outlook: Swiss franc rallies to fresh 14-year highs versus dollar

[Redator]

USD/CHF is down ~0.63% in today’s session, currently trading around the ~0.79378 level.

Crucially remaining under the key level of 0.8000, the Swiss franc remains on pace for its best three-monthly performance versus the dollar since 2008 amid the latest wave of dollar weakness.

USD/CHF: Key takeaways from today’s session

• With the DXY falling to three-year lows today shortly after the New York open, dollar-franc has predictably followed suit, falling to levels last seen in 2011~
  
• Recent commentary from the Swiss National Bank, suggesting that both negative rates and currency interventions remain a possibility, might limit USD/CHF downside in the short term

USD/CHF: Dollar downside remains largest driving force for USD/CHF traders

Returning to regularly scheduled programming from the last seven days, dollar downside has continued early into this week’s trading, with USD/CHF currently poised to extend a seven-day losing streak.

Cutting rates to 0.00% in their June decision, which would typically weaken the franc, recent policy decisions have done little in curbing dollar-franc selling pressure, with markets overwhelmingly bearish on the U.S. dollar.

With recent negotiations breaking down somewhat, nervousness about the future of tariffs continues to weigh negatively on USD.

Otherwise, the ever-polarising ‘Big Beautiful Bill’, courtesy of POTUS Donald Trump, continues to make its way through the Senate, raising questions on the implications to ballooning U.S. debt.

Prior to recent weeks, and as an interesting parallel, the last time USD/CHF traded below 0.8000 was in 2011, shortly following the S&P’s downgrade of the US Federal Debt credit rating for the first time in history.

Naturally, some similarities are to be had between 2011 and 2025, with Moody’s recently downgrading US debt from AAA to AA1.

U.S. Dollar Strength Index (DXY), TVC, TradingView, 30/06/2025

USD/CHF: Soft US data releases anchor dollar pricing

Suffering a series of softer-than-expected data releases in recent memory, markets have found plenty of opportunities to offload the dollar in favour of other currencies.

Perhaps most significantly, last week’s US GDP left much to be desired, showing the American economy to have contracted for the first time in over three years. Otherwise, rock-bottom consumer confidence in June’s release paved the way for further dollar weakness, with the CCI falling to yearly lows.

Put simply, on both a fundamental and technical level, dollar sentiment remains overwhelmingly negative.

USD/CHF: Technical analysis

USD/CHF, OANDA, TradingView, 30/06/2025

• Falling over 2.34% in last week’s trading, USD/CHF remains bearish. With price at 14-year lows, little structure exists below current price action, which could otherwise offer support
  
• Both the daily RSI and Stochastics currently rate USD/CHF price action as ‘oversold’, suggesting that a retracement is likely before a further move to the downside is possible
  
• If price is able to break down below current levels, bears will likely target ~0.78496 in the medium term

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