US Stocks point to muted reaction at the Open despite big ADP Jobs miss

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This morning's ADP release was not enough to trigger large volatility in Markets. The data came in at -33K vs a consensus of 95K, a consequential miss that led to a subdued market reaction.

US Equity futures had gone up in the overnight session with the S&P 500 just grazing new all-time highs (6,229 on its CFD) and markets are now correcting, with however a slow but steady grind.

ADP Employment measures private employment by US Firms and concerns around 30 millions of Americans , which represents a bit less than 10% of the US Population – Its correlation to the Non-Farm Payrolls data is not significant, a reason why reactions to ADP releases are less accentuated than the more global US NFP.

The miss is nonetheless quite large and it will be interesting to see in the upcoming months how Trump's policies influence the difference in Private and Public US Employment, if there are disparities and how much of a difference in the economy this potential disparity generates.

The current picture in US Indices point to similar rebalancing flows from Tech to Consumer Defensive/Manufacturing with the Nasdaq again leading on the downside (-0.40%) and the Dow Jones on top of Indices (-0.10%) – Futures point towards a small gap down at the 9:30 opening Bell.

The US Dollar is starting to build a low as a potential technical bottom is attained.

US Indices CFD performance, July 2, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Read More: Gold surges above $3,350 again — will momentum continue?

Nasdaq vs Dow Jones Relative strength in the past 10 years

Dow Jones vs Nasdaq, July 2, 2025 – Source: TradingView

This chart takes a peak at a comparison from Nasdaq prices relative to the Dow Jones – Since its advent in 1971, the Tech-Focused index has quite largely overperformed the more defensive Industrial Dow.

Prices in both indices are not calculated the same way, however the idea stays the same – The downtrend is slowing down, but still active, a bottom might be getting formed.

The ratio is now only 2 to 1 in terms of pure pricing and it seems that markets might start to change their appetite from the Nasdaq to the Dow – It is still very early to say this but might be worth taking a look.

Dow Jones and Nasdaq 4H Charts

Dow Jones 4H

Dow Jones 4H Chart, July 2, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Momentum is back to neutral after yesterday's overbought conditions stopped the bulls in their charge upwards.

Look for immediate support around 44,315 to 44,330, a confluence with the 4H MA 50 and the upwards trendline that is leading current flows.

For bears, look at either a failure to hold the trendline mentioned right before, or at a rejection of the local top at 44,702, which may not be reached if tomorrow's data comes in with a negative surprise.

Nasdaq 4H Chart

Nasdaq 4H Chart, July 2, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The Nasdaq chart looks more balanced, subject to bear strenght compared to the US 30 chart seen right before.

Prices broke through the upwards trendline that lead to the new All-time high price discovery (22,751 on the CFD) and have started to form what resembles a Head and Shoulders pattern – To supplement that, both the MA 20 and 50 are acting as immediate resistance and are starting to slope downwards.
RSI Momentum is also in the same direction but close to oversold, therefore it will be key to see how markets react to the upcoming Opening Bell.

Levels to watch for the Nasdaq:

• Local ATH Top – 22,700 Region Resistance
• Pivot Zone 22,450
• Previous ATH Support Zone 22,250 (confluence with 4H MA 200)

Safe Trades!

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