After the NFP surprise, is the US dollar back in play?

[Redator]

This morning's Non-Farm Payrolls data was more than welcomed for Dollar-Bulls

A 37K Beat on expectations (147K vs 110K exp), accompanied with a lower Unemployment Rate (4.1% vs 4.3% prior) and lower Growth Average Hourly Earnings (=less price pressures) gives path to way lesser chances of stagflation for the US Economy, at least for now.

US Indices have had a fairly muted reaction as Equity markets are still preparing for the open and the release of ISM Services Data at 10:00 expected at 50.5.

However, the US Dollar is the one standout winner and confirms further the idea that 96.50 could be a swing low for the Greenback. Let's take a look at Intra-Day Charts for the Dollar Index and other majors.

Read More: Breaking News: DJIA rallies on NFP beat of 37,000, unemployment falls to 4.1%

Dollar Index and other Majors' Intra-Day Charts

Dollar Index 1H

Dollar Index 1H Chart, July 3, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The DXY shot up close to 600 pips right after the US NFP data release, testing the 200H Moving Average before retracting.

Having attained the target of a much higher timeframe Head and Shoulders (96.50), our last analysis of the US Dollar had mentioned the potential of a temporary end to the selloff in the dollar – at least leading to consolidation, the rest is up to what happens around the globe (not forgetting the Trump Administration) in the upcoming months.

Prices are currently retracting to the Consolidation Support 97.00 Zone which should serve as immediate floor before ISM Services gives more clarity to market participants that aren't off this week relative to their US Dollar demand.

Next step for dollar bulls is to break above 97.50, which would also break above the 1H MA 200 mentioned before and the higher bound of 2025 Descending Channel. This could point to a further test of the Intermediate Resistance 98.00 Zone.

USDJPY 1H

USDJPY 1H Chart, July 3, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The longer-run range is still intact, with the pair up 1,000 pips after the data and seeing some resistance at the Lower timeframe Resistance 145.00 – Further break higher will test the 146.00 Main resistance zone which should warrant further analysis when prices reach that zone.

A further correction points at a 144.50 pivot point.

GBPUSD 1H

GBPUSD 1H Chart, July 3, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Cable is looking like bears might take the upper hand in the period coming with the formation of a downwards trendline.

Prices are currently testing the 1.36 major pivot zone – breaking the 1.3563 swing lows points to a swift test of the 1.35 psychological zone.

EURUSD 1H

Same idea as for Cable, however looking less bearish.

Reactions to the 1.1765 pivot will be important, with bulls having to push above to maintain the Mid-May upwards trendline to retest the current 1.1830 highs.

On the other hand, a break of that trendline will point to a retest of the 1H MA 200 at 1.17, with further support at the 1.16 Resistance turned Support a point below.


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