US Oil retreats today but bullish technicals suggest upside ahead

[Redator]

The NA session kicks off quietly, with subdued volumes as American traders take the day off, giving markets a breather after yesterday’s upside surprise in the Non-Farm Payrolls and fresh diplomatic updates from the US – More is to come next week as we approach Trump's infamous July 9th deadline

With little on the immediate calendar, Oil Traders' attention is turning to tomorrow’s OPEC+ meeting — delayed by a day due to the Ashura holiday. The timing shift may be behind some of today’s selling tone, as market participants hold off ahead of any supply-side headlines.

From a price action perspective, crude has been consolidating in a narrow $2 range, showing signs it may be gearing up for a bullish breakout.

While today's pullback remains orderly, the broader structure still favors the upside, especially if upcoming catalysts align with the underlying momentum.

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US Oil Technical Analysis

WTI Daily Chart

US Oil Daily Chart, July 4, 2025 – Source: TradingView

US Oil prices are contained between its 50 and 200 Day moving averages and has been consolidating since the end of the Middle East Tensions led to a significant correction.

One thing to note is that buyers seem to be using the formation of an upward trendline to push prices higher again as the global trade outlook is looking progressively less dim.

One thing to spot next week, to confirm this theme for crude outlook, will be the July 9th deadline where we will see if the "TACO" is real.

WTI 4H Chart

US Oil 4H Chart, July 4, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The past two weeks of $65 to $67 consolidation led to a breakout on Wednesday 2nd of July – getting to highs of 68.34 after the US-Vietnam trade deal (notably allowing China to manoeuvre more trade) and Iran's announcement of non-cooperaton with UN Nuclear's supervision – Today's price action looks like a healthy pullback from Wednesday's small breakout.

Momentum is still very calm, confirmed with the RSI on both the 4H and Daily timeframes hanging around neutral.

One additional element to look is the mix of both the 4H 50 and 200 MAs in confluence with the Upward Trendline from 2025 lows that could be used by buyers to lift prices.

Any failure to do so will give the hand back to sellers.

Levels to check:

Support Zones

• 66.50 4H MA 50, 200 and trendline
• $65 Support Zone
• $63 support at descending channel

Resistance Zones

• $70 Pivot Zone
• Intermediate Resistance $72 to $73
• Main Resistance $75 to $76

Safe trades and Happy 4th of July for American readers!

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