Dow Jones at the brink of its all-time highs, will we see new highs this week?

[Redator]

Stock markets reopened after a prolonged holiday weekend with no major headlines disrupting the recent streak of red-hot bullish sentiment.

US President Trump is expected to begin sending formal letters to international counterparts, outlining his administration’s 10% tariff plans—or potentially higher—alongside trade deals that have been in development since the early months of his mandate.

Elsewhere, China has moved to restrict EU healthcare device imports, though this has done little to dent global market confidence, with most major indices trading in the green to start the week.

In the FX space, volatility may pick up ahead of interest rate decisions from the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, with both central banks under increased scrutiny amid diverging global monetary paths.

The US open is mixed, with indices hesitating as key technical levels come into play. Notably, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is now within 0.5% of its all-time highs, positioning this week as potentially pivotal for further upside momentum.

Let’s dive into a multi-timeframe analysis of the US 30 to identify potential headwinds and chart out the zones that could either cap the current rally or open the door to fresh record highs.

Read More: Trade Deal Deadline, OPEC + Hike. DAX Hovers at Key Confluence Area

Dow Jones Multi-Timeframe Analysis from Daily to 30m Charts

Dow Jones Daily Chart

Dow Jones Daily Chart, July 7, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The Dow has completed a 10 day streak where buyers completely took the momentum, with prices forming a Tight Bull Channel that eventually took the index to current overbought RSI Levels.

Key 50 and 200 Day moving averages are about to form a Golden Cross which has historically been a bullish technical catalyst for buyers.

Let's take a look closer to spot if lower timeframes also point to that direction.

Dow Jones 4H Chart

Dow Jones 4H Chart, July 7, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Prices have followed a steep upwards trendline and are still comfortably above its key Moving Averages – look at current reactions to the MA 20 acting as immediate support in confluence with the steep upward trendline that buyers will need to hold to keep their strong hand.

After a consolidation at the highs following positive NFP surprises that got slowed down by highly-overbought indications on the RSI, the lack of retracement still shows high probabilities of buyers staying strong – any break from here would require further analysis as the week develops.

The picture is however not all green with Bearish catalysts that could be at the front door: Traders should keep an eye on Fears from the infamous Trump Tariffs.

Dow Jones 30m Chart, July 7, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Short timeframe momentum is closer to neutral after a 400 point consolidation – The 30m 50-period MA is getting flat and buyers will have to maintain above 44,670 to avoid giving up their home-court advantage.

Watch for headlines relative to tariffs to see how markets interpret what could be another key week to global sentiment.

Don't forget that asset managers have high expectations for Equity performance, and while they aren't all long indices, the trend is slowly going that way.

Markets were also trading around a theme of downplayed effect from tariffs, therefore watch for a switch in that aspect.

Dow Jones vs Nasdaq Comparison Chart

Dow Jones / Nasdaq Comparison chart, July 7, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The Nasdaq-to-Dow Jones ratio remains anchored near the 2.0 mark, with weekly convergence patterns suggesting a potential slowdown in the multi-year downtrend—possibly even setting the stage for a reversal.

The RSI remains subdued but has begun to turn upward, indicating early signs of momentum shift.

Notably, during recent low-volume sessions, we've seen preliminary signs of this trend playing out, with pre-open futures once again showing strength in the US 30 and relative weakness in the Nasdaq.

The coming weeks will be key in determining whether this rotation continues to gain traction.


Safe Trades!

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