Markets Today: Trade Deal Deadline, OPEC + Hike. DAX Hovers at Key Confluence Area

[Redator]

Market participants were expecting an upbeat start to the week on the hope that trade deals might finally be announced as the Trump administration deadline of July 9 approaches. However, President Trump adopted a confrontational stance once more by announcing that the US will begin issuing tariff letters to countries as early as Monday.

Most Read: S&P 500, Dow Jones Q3 Outlook: Tariffs, Tech, and Small Cap Concerns

There has been some mixed comments from the Trump administration though, with Commerce Secretary Lutnick saying tariffs are to take effect from August 1. Is this another case where the Trump administration will delay the implementation of tariffs or just miscommunication? I expect we will hear more as the day progresses.

Asian Market Wrap

Asian stocks, as measured by MSCI’s index, dropped 0.6%. U.S. Treasury prices went up, causing the 10-year yield to fall slightly to 4.33%. The Dollar index increased by 0.1%, while the Chinese Yuan weakened after Trump announced a 10% extra charge for people linked to the BRICS nations. He also said the U.S. will send out tariff notices and announce trade deals starting Monday at 12 PM ET.

Trade tensions are rising again as investors watch how negotiations between the U.S. and other countries progress before the July 9th deadline. Stocks have hit record highs, bouncing back from their April drop caused by earlier tariff announcements. This rebound is driven by hopes that the tariff deadline might be extended, as Trump often makes threats but later softens his stance.

Officials have previously said higher tariffs are set to start on August 1, but some countries might get extra time to negotiate. Treasury Secretary Bessent mentioned that a three-week delay could be offered to certain nations for further discussions.

For a full breakdown on what to expect this week, read Markets weekly outlook - RBA and RBNZ rate decisions, July 9th Trump deadline and BRICS Meeting

OPEC + to Increase Production

OPEC+ agreed at a weekend meeting to raise production by 548,000 barrels per day (bpd) in August, up from the 411,000 bpd the group had approved for May, June and July, and 138,000 bpd for April.

The production boost will come from eight members of the group - Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Oman, Iraq, Kazakhstan and Algeria.

Source: HSBC Global Research, LSEG Workspace

OPEC+ said the decision was based on a "steady global economic outlook" and "healthy market conditions," continuing their message that the oil market is doing well.

Markets opened last night with Oil prices down around $1 from its Friday close before an Asian session recovery. It will be interesting to gauge how markets react in the European and US sessions to the OPEC + decision.

Until such a time that more information on trade deals is signed officially the rally in Oil prices may face hurdles and concerns which is likely to cap further gains.

European Open

European stock markets showed mixed results on Monday as investors kept an eye on news about U.S. President Donald Trump's upcoming tariff deadline.

The overall European STOXX 600 index stayed steady at 541.08 points.

Other major markets were mixed too: Germany's DAX rose 0.4%, France's CAC 40 fell 0.1%, Spain's IBEX went up 0.1%, and the UK's FTSE 100 dropped 0.2%.

On the FX front, The U.S. dollar index, which compares the dollar to six other major currencies, rose 0.2% to 97.145. This is slightly above last Tuesday's low of 96.373, which was the weakest level in nearly 3.5 years.

The dollar dropped slightly to 0.7949 Swiss francs, while the euro fell 0.2% to 1.1767 but stayed near its July 1 high of $1.1829, the strongest since September 2021.

The U.S. dollar also gained 0.3% against both the Canadian dollar and the Mexican peso, reaching 1.3640 and 18.6548 pesos, respectively.

Currency Power Balance

Source: OANDA Labs

Economic Data Releases and Final Thoughts

Looking at the economic calendar, which is a bit quieter this week for both the US and EU this week.

There is Euro Area retail sales due out in a short while and German CPI on Thursday.

The main focus this week will be on trade deal developments as the tariff deadline looms large. Clarity will also be sought on the different dates being discussed with the August 1 date being mentioned more regularly in the last few days.

US officials may want to announce some deals on July 9 which will come into effect on August 1 and this would in turn give other countries time to strike a deal.

It will be intriguing to see how this develops over the course of the day and week as this could be the major driving force behind volatility this week.

For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge)

Chart of the Day - DAX Index

From a technical standpoint, European stocks have been in a Limbo the last few weeks while US stocks have continued their ascent.

Much of this ha been down to the ongoing tit-for-tat between the EU and US regarding a potential trade deals.

As the deadline approaches will the news provide a short in the arm for the DAX Index.

The DAX is hovering just shy of the 24000 handle on a key confluence area which is providing support.

The price range between 23700 and 23650 hosts both the 20 and 50-day MAs and could be a key support zone if bears wish to push prices even lower.

If this level holds bulls may fancy their chances of a bigger move to the upside.

DAX Daily Chart, July 17. 2025

Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge)

Support

• 23700
• 23471
• 23212

Resistance

• 24000
• 24144
• 24340

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