Preparing for tonight's RBNZ Rate Decision

[Redator]

It's the Royal Bank of New Zealand's turn to release its Rate Decision after the Royal Bank of Australia decided to surprise markets with a hold (a cut was widely expected).

Compared to the Australian Central Bank Rate expectations, the RBNZ is forecasted to hold rates with the current OCR (Official Cash Rate, New Zealand's main policy rate) at 3.25%.
– Market expectations are at 80% of a Rate hold and there is approximately 30 bps of Cuts priced in the NZ Curve towards the end of the year (nothing atypical).

Pacific major Currencies like the Aussie or the Kiwi, the subject of today's currency analysis, have had an interesting, strong and consistent performance in Q2.

The macroeconomic tone got really positive with some much expected improvements in US-China relations and the pricing of the TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) trade – This profited largely to the NZD which was up 4.50% against the USD at its highs, from May lows (now back to +2.56%).

Despite the newest menaces leading to another deadline extension, the mood seems to be turning around and this has led to a fairly negative beginning to the month for the Kiwi.

Let's take a look at where Markets are standing going into the RBNZ Policy Meeting.

Read More: A look at US Indices & US Dollar after the latest drama from the Trump administration

NZDUSD Technical Analysis ahead of the RBNZ Rate Decision

Daily Timeframe

NZDUSD Daily Chart, July 8, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The Kiwi has been evolving in a 1.5 handle daily upward channel, profiting from the weakness-trend in the USD that is starting to crack.

The Greenback has started the month on a solid performance and has led to tops im most major pairs – NZDUSD is not excluded on that subject, with its latest top attained on July 1st at 0.6122.

Selling Candles have been strong, particularly the one from yesterday and today's reaction is muted (hesitation Doji) – Markets are consolidating around the 0.60 psychological level going into tonight's number, at a confluence with its 50-Day MA and the bottom of the Daily Channel.

Daily Momentum is going into bearish territory but we can only assume that the Daily Channel will not hold if prices actually break out from it – currently not the case.

4H Timeframe

NZDUSD 4H Chart, July 8, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Today's downside breakout attempt got met with a rebound as USD Sellers started to appear again – any second try to repeat with failure would confirm further the solidity of the ongoing Daily Upwards Channel.

Levels to place on your charts:

Resistance Zones:

• 0.6050 Zone (confluence with 4H MA 50)
• 0.6090 100 pip Zone
• 0.6110 to 0.6120 Monthly Highs

Support Zones:

• Immediate Pivot 0.60 (+/- 150 pips)
• 0.5930 Zone
• 0.59 Psychological Support

1H Timeframe

NZDUSD 1H Chart, July 8, 2025 – Source: TradingView

NZDUSD has been in an hourly descending channel since the beginning of the month but has recently began to mark an intermediate low – The probability of these lows being confirmed is higher with the 1H RSI Forming a bullish divergence.

Buyers will want to hold current levels (right around the 0.60 handle) and break above the descending channel to regain some control.

Sellers would want to see a bear reaction to the ongoing retracement to the 1H MA 50 (0.6014) – The 150 pip zone between the 0.60 Key level will be essential for momentum advantage between bulls and bears.

In the waiting for more information, get your orders ready and good luck for tonight's RBNZ Meeting.


Safe Trades!

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