Trump tariff yo-yo fails to scare Markets – NA Mid-Week Update

[Redator]

Despite a risk-off opening to this week, the latest tariff delay from the Trump administration brought back some risk appetite.

The Nasdaq retested its all-time highs (22,945 on its CFD) and the S&P 500 came close to it.

Only the Dow Jones is once again lagging on the positive sentiment, with deeper US productivity concerns due to the tariff menace still being real for Consumer Defensive stocks.

Markets are still off an ecstatic mood which is starting to show a few cracks.

The real main change to this week's flows is the US Dollar starting to show some signs of rebound, up around 1 full handle from its 96.50 lows.

The FOMC Minutes are released about an hour ago, with the most market moving element being the mention of a few participants that are moving closer to a cut in July, leading to a drop in US Treasury Yields (Bonds higher, yields down).

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North American Equity Indices Snapshot

North-American Indices performance since last Monday – July 9, 2025

North-American indices are less enthusiastic than they were last week on a % change measure, despite last Thursday's surprise beat in the US Non-Farm Payrolls.

The Canadian TSX gained back some ground with the Dow giving up its lead – The US 30 Index got hurt the most from the increased uncertainty after the latest Trump drama.

Current week highs and lows for the Indices (CFDs):

• S&P 500: 6,278 Weekly highs (6,290 ATH) – 6,222 Lows
• Nasdaq: Weekly and ATH 22,945 – 22,611 Lows
• Dow Jones: 44,873 Weekly highs (45,060 ATH) – 44,189 Lows
• Canada's TSX: Weekly and ATH 27,100 – 26,860 Lows

US Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors

USD vs other Majors, July 9, 2025 - Source: TradingView.

The US Dollar is seeing some upside performance, particularly since last week's NFP beat – Markets could have still expected a reversal to the USD selling with a bigger extent.

This is another proof of the underlying macroeconomic changes that are currently happening through financial markets with money flows leaving the US for other markets.

Canadian Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors

CAD vs other Majors, July 9, 2025 - Source: TradingView

The CAD has failed to hold its past week's high standard, giving up some of its past week performance against European currencies and the US Dollar, which gained back some ground.

The outlier is the Australian Dollar which got bolstered by the interest rate hold from Tuesday's overnight RBA Rate Decision.

Intraday Technical Levels for the USD/CAD

USDCAD is currently moving in rangebound fashion between the 1.38 highs established Monday June 23rd and the 1.3560 Lows established last Thursday.

There is still a possibility of a double bottom but seeing some hesitancy in the reversal from the Main hourly support (level detailed right below) – the odds point more towards further consolidation within the range.

Levels to watch for the pair:

Support Levels:

• Pivot zone 1.3675 to 1.3686
• 1.3650 Midpoint between 1H MA 50 and 200
• Higher Timeframe Key support Zone 1.3560 to 1.36

Resistance Levels:

• 1.3710 Weekly highs
• 1.3740 Pivot turned Resistance
• 1.38 top of range

US and Canada Economic Calendar for the Rest of the Week

The calendar is pretty thin for North-America throughout the rest of the week, with markets only awaiting the weekly Jobless Claims report tomorrow (Thursday 8:30 A.M. ET) and the Canadian Employment Data on Friday at 8:30 (may be a major mover for USDCAD) expected unchanged – expectations tend to be volatile in Canada FYI.

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