Japan PPI slips to 10-month low

[Redator]

The Japanese yen is showing limited movement on Thursday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 146.45, up 0.10% on the day.

Japan PPI falls to 2.9%

Japan's Producer Price Index rose 2.9% y/y in June, down from an upwardly revised 3.3% in May and matching the consensus. This marked the lowest increase since August 2024. On a monthly basis, PPI fell 0.2%, a second straight decline after a 0.1% decline in May.

The PPI report signals that underlying inflation pressures are dropping at the producer level, which could delay the BoJ's plans to hike rates and normalize policy. The BoJ has been in a wait-and-see stance since it raised rates in January, exercising caution in a turbulent economic environment. The Bank of Japan held rates in June and meets next on July 31.

FOMC minutes - how fast to cut rates?

The FOMC minutes indicated a broad consensus that the Fed will deliver additional rate cuts this year. The pace of those cuts, however, is up for debate. Some members favored cutting as soon as the July meeting, while others were more cautious and wanted to see where inflation and employment were headed. President Trump's tariffs have not boosted inflation so far, but the tariff effect on inflation could be felt in the following months and the Fed remains cautious. Fed Chair Powell has stuck to his guns, pushing back against persistent calls from President Trump to lower rates.

Fed policymakers are keeping a close eye on the US labor market, which has softened but not deteriorated. Earlier, unemployment claims dropped to 227 thousand, down from a revised 232 thousand in the previous release and below the consensus of 235 thousand.

USDJPY Technical

• 146.17 and 145.90 are the next support levels
• There is resistance at 146.36 and 146.63

USDJPY 4-Hour Chart, July 20, 2025

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