Copper mine output to rise 2.9% annually over next decade, says Fitch’s BMI

[Redator]

Global copper mine production is set to rise by an average annual rate of 2.9% over the next decade, growing from 23.8 million tonnes in 2025 to 30.9 million tonnes in 2034, according to a new report by Fitch Solutions’ BMI.

This production growth, says BMI, is largely down to several new projects and expansions coming online, supported by historically elevated copper prices and a positive demand outlook.

This year, BMI estimates global copper mine output to rise 2.5% as production in Chile recovers and the giant Oyu Tolgoi mine in Mongolia ramps up. Those in Peru, Russia and Zambia will also remain among the major contributors, it adds.

The Fitch unit cites data from the International Copper Study Group showing a 2% year-on-year output rise during the January-April period, backed by higher production from the Las Bambas, Quellaveco and Toromocho sites in Peru, the Kamoa-Kakula mine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the aforementioned Oyu Tolgoi project.

Credit: Fitch Solutions

However, this 2025 growth projection was revised down to reflect the reduced guidance at Kamoa-Kakula, which was recently impacted by seismic activity. The Fitch unit also highlights the downside risks flagged by major miners such as Glencore and Anglo American. Still, many others, including top producer Codelco, have set a positive outlook to support higher global production.

Chile to remain leader

Regionally, BMI expects Chile to remain the dominant force in the copper supply chain, with output growing at 3% in 2025 to 5.7 million tonnes, accounting for a quarter of the global mine production.

A major contributor to Chile’s increase is the continued ramp-up at Teck’s Quebrada Blanca site, which would offset some of the challenges faced at the state-owned Codelco.

Chile’s biggest copper windfall in years signals higher output

In the long term, it says Chile’s outlook remains positive “despite a range of factors that could limit investment in the sector over the coming years,” as the nation’s vast critical mineral reserves will encourage future investment as demand rises alongside the acceleration of the green energy transition.

The DRC is also expected to see 3% growth, though downside risks remain due to Kamoa-Kakula’s reduced guidance. Peru, meanwhile, is forecast to see 3.2% growth, recovering from a 1% decline in 2024.