Gold finds some bids in the latest US Dollar outflows

[Redator]

Gold had been struggling in the past few weeks, particularly since Israel-Iran war-induced Risk-off moves failed to bring the precious metal to new all-time highs.

However, the Bullion hasn't retracted majorly from its elevated levels, still up around 28.60% in 2025 despite being about $200 from its ATH price – A sign of resilience.

Last week's bearish formation got met with a renewed breakout taking Gold up 2% from its 3,284 lows – New tariff announcements with the infamous Trump Letters is creating further uncertainty, leading to more outflows from US exposure.

US Stocks are down on the session, US Treasuries are once again downtrending since July 1st , Cryptocurrencies are up, and only the USD is retracing upwards but without much strength.

Let's take a look at Gold charts to spot what technicals are implying about the demand for the metal.

Read More: Dow Jones update as markets prepare for the upcoming US CPI

Gold Daily Chart

Gold Daily Chart, July 11 2025 – Source: TradingView

Looking back to our previous Gold analysis, where we mentioned a potential interest for bulls to step in at the 2025 Upwards trendline, there has been some reactions.

Some rebounds have been observed on the trendline but have been contained by the broadly euphoric sentiment that propelled risk assets to new All-time highs, particularly with Nasdaq and Bitcoin.

It seems that the action is leading to some building up in Gold technicals, with Momentum starting to take another shift higher.

The Daily MA 50 ($3,325) is acting as immediate support and can be looked as a pivot – More on bullish/bearish pivots looking closer.

Gold 4H Chart

Gold 4H Chart, July 11 2025 – Source: TradingView

The action seen looking closer still shows choppiness, turning slightly bullish.

One of the main elements to spot is the resilience of the 3,300 Main Pivot that serves as a real magnet to retracements, with most attempts of breakout retracting to this zone.

Holding above however gives more relative strength to buyers, especially if US Equities start to see less demand from the ongoing uncertainty. This will get more clarity after Tuesday's CPI Data release which will also rewire Gold demand.

My expectations for the US CPI and reactions in Gold (things may play totally differently):

• A miss on the CPI is bullish on Gold (more cuts, everything rallies – Extent of move depends on extent of the miss).
• In-line CPI will lead to more rangebound, slightly bullish on Gold with the current US asset outflows, but fairly gradual
• A beat, that may be expected with the latest tariff uncertainty, will have the most tricky outcomes.
  • For my own view, a major beat on expectations will completely change the FED's reaction function and markets may start to price in some hikes, with US Yields raging upwards, demand for Gold may be impacted to the downside
  • a relatively small miss will leave the rangebound picture intact, with some gradual rise in US Treasury yields also impacting demand

Gold 1H Chart

Gold 1H Chart, July 11 2025 – Source: TradingView

Mostly rangebound action as markets prepare for the US CPI, as seen with the flat and criss-crossing Moving Averages.

Short timeframes are currently overbought but 50 and 200 Hours MAs are making a short-term golden cross, however rangebound action can't make much from short-term hourly moving averages.

Except for a break above the daily $3,368 Highs, a small consolidation around current levels would have the highest probabilities except if anything happens in the weekly close to the session.



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