Australian dollar eyes China GDP

[Redator]

The Australian dollar has edged lower on Monday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6555, down 0.32% on the day. The Aussie took advantage of US dollar weakness last week as it touched a high of 0.6593, its highest level since November 2024.

China's GDP expected to ease to 5.1%

China's economy is expected to have grown by 5.1% in the second quarter, after back-to-back quarters of gains of 5.4%. The government's annual growth target is around 5.0%, and policymakers won't complain if this target is exceeded for a third consecutive quarter.

Exports were up 5.8% y/y in June, above the consensus of 5.0% and well above the May gain of 4.8%. The jump in exports was driven by a trade truce with the US that lowered tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 55%. Still, the economic picture is uncertain as the tariff truce ends in August.

China will also release industrial production and retail sales for June, with the markets forecasting weaker numbers. Industrial production, which has been decelerating in recent months, is expected to ease to 5.6% from 5.8%, while retail sales are expected to fall to 5.6%, down from 6 .4% in May, which was the strongest level since December 2023.

Australia releases Westpac Consumer Sentiment on Tuesday, with a forecast of a 0.4% gain for July . This follows a 0.4% gain in June. Consumers remain cautious, despite the Reserve Bank of Australia's rate cut in May and lower inflation.

The RBA shocked the markets last week when it maintained the cash rate at 3.85%, as all signs appeared to point to a quarter-point cut. The RBA meets next on August 12.

AUDUSD Technical

• AUD/USD is testing support at 0.6562. Below, there is support at 0.6550
• There is resistance at 0.6570 and 0.6582

AUD/USD 4-Hour Chart, July 14, 2025

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