Asia midday: Asia stocks resilient, Gold rebounds, Nasdaq 100 at risk of bearish reversal (Chart of the day)

[Redator]

All major US indices closed lower on Tuesday, 15 July, except for the Nasdaq 100, which rose 0.1% thanks to Nvidia’s continued strength. The S&P 500 hit a fresh intraday all-time high of 6,302 early in the session but reversed gains to end down 0.4%. Small caps were hit hardest, with the Russell 2000 falling 2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1%.

Disappointing earnings also weighed on sentiment. JP Morgan declined 0.7%, Wells Fargo plunged 5.5%, and BlackRock slid 5.9% after reporting Q2 results. The Dow underperformed due to its higher exposure to financials.

Read more in our previous Chart of the day – Dow Jones Industrial Average at risk of a minor corrective decline

Sticky inflation signals stall Fed rate cut hopes and lift the US dollar

US June CPI data came in marginally cooler than expected (core CPI at 2.9% y/y vs. 3% forecast). However, tariff-related inflation fears resurfaced due to sharp monthly gains in categories like household furnishings (+1%), video/audio equipment (+1.1%), and toys (+1.8%), the steepest monthly increases in years.

The CME FedWatch tool now shows the probability of a September rate cut falling to 57%, down from as high as 70% a week ago. The Fed’s more cautious outlook helped boost the US dollar, with the Dollar Index rising for a fourth straight day (+0.6%) to a three-week high of 98.79, just shy of its 50-day moving average (98.90), a key intermediate resistance level.

Asia stock markets are resilient on positive US-China tariff rhetoric

Despite global headwinds, most Asia Pacific markets remained resilient today. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 0.3%, marking its fifth straight gain and reaching a four-month high. Singapore’s Straits Times Index extended its record-breaking streak, climbing 0.2% to a fresh all-time intraday high of 4,129, its eighth consecutive day of gains.

The optimism was further reinforced by comments from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who signalled that US-China trade talks were progressing positively. He suggested that the 12 August tariff deadline was “flexible,” easing investor fears of an immediate escalation.

Gold holds key support despite strong dollar, rebounds on stagflation fears

Gold (XAU/USD) saw only a mild pullback on Tuesday, falling 0.6% before stabilizing at its 50-day moving average (US$3,328), which acted as key support. In today’s Asia session, the precious metal rebounded 0.5% intraday. The bounce was fuelled by stagflation concerns as inflation pressures persist alongside signs of economic softening.

Economic data releases

Fig 1: Key data for today’s Asia mid-session (Source: MarketPulse)

Chart of the day – Nasdaq 100 on the brink of shaping a potential minor corrective decline

Fig 2: US Nasdaq 100 CFD Index minor trend as of 16 July 2025 (Source: TradingView)

Despite the last two sessions of outperformance seen on the Nasdaq 100 against the other major US stock indices (S&P 500, DJIA, Russell 2000), technical analysis suggests that the US Nasdaq 100 CFD Index is likely due for at least an imminent minor corrective decline sequence within its medium-term uptrend phase.

Since 3 July, the price actions of the US Nasdaq 100 CFD Index has consolidated and stalled at the upper boundary of a long-term secular ascending channel in play since the March 2020 low,

Only for the first time on Tuesday, 15 July, since the consolidation started on 3 July, the US Nasdaq 100 CFD Index has formed a daily bearish reversal “Gravestone Doji” candlestick pattern after a failed intraday push above the upper boundary of the long-term secular ascending channel (see Fig 2).

These observations suggest a potential “bullish exhaustion” moment on the US Nasdaq 100 CFD Index in light of Nvidia’s (a significant component stock of Nasdaq 100) positive news flow that allowed it to sell lower-grade H20 chips to China.

Watch the 22,920/23,020 pivotal resistance, and a break below 22,600 is likely to expose the next intermediate support zone of 22,390/22,235 in the first step.

However, a clearance above 23,020 invalidates the bearish scenario to resume the bullish impulsive up move sequence for the next intermediate resistances to come in at 23,190, and 23,400/23,480 (defined by Fibonacci extension cluster levels).

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