Stock market today: Dow trades rangebound at $44500 midway through Q2 earnings season

[Redator]

Trading at around ~$44,500 deep into the New York session, the Dow Jones 30 (DJIA) remains relatively unchanged in today’s trading, up +0.22%, and looks for direction midway through earnings season.

Otherwise, the benchmark S&P 500 is virtually unchanged at +0.01% in today's trading, while the Nasdaq-100 is down -0.44%.

Dow Jones 30 (DJIA): Key takeaways from today’s session

• Trading in a period of consolidation since early July, markets keenly await the release of big tech earnings later this week, to include Alphabet (GOOG), Intel (INTC) and Tesla (TSLA)
  
• While some companies have already beaten Q2 expectations, the impact of elevated interest rates, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and ongoing trade policy uncertainty on corporate earnings is yet to be fully understood, which explains current market indecision
  
• Otherwise, renewed pressure on Fed Chair Jerome Powell by the Trump administration continues to build market uncertainty, hampering economic growth expectations

Dow Jones 30 (DJIA): The bar for earnings season success remains low

With Q2 earnings season in full swing, US equities will need further reassurance to break current consolidation.

While the banking sector somewhat unceremoniously kicked off earning season, credit worthiness and general delinquency amongst personal and commercial borrowers would receive much of the market’s attention, dampening optimism on otherwise better-than-expected results.

Otherwise, and in most recent news, DJ30 member Coca-Cola (KO) beat earnings expectations in their pre-market release today, where otherwise weak demand volumes were overshadowed by a considerable increase in operating margin year-over-year.

With the Dow currently trading more rangebound than other US indices, markets are now turning attention to key big-tech earnings, some of which will occur after market tomorrow evening:

Tuesday 22nd July:

• Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), AMC

Wednesday 23rd July:

• AT&T (T), PMO
• CME Group (CME), PMO
• GE Vernova (GEV), PMO
• Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO), PMO
• Alphabet Inc A (GOOGL), AMC
• Alphabet Inc C (GOOG), AMC
• International Business Machines (IBM), AMC
• QuantamScape (QS), AMC
• ServiceNow (NOW), AMC
• Tesla (TSLA), AMC

Thursday 24th July:

• Blackstone (BX), PMO
• Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP), PMO
• Intel Corp (INTC), AMC
• Newmont (NEM), AMC

Friday 25th July:

• Aon (AON), PMO
  
  

(PMO, Pre market open) (AMC, After market close)

While most of the key earnings to be released later this week do not contain any Dow Jones constituents, big-tech stocks and their relative Q2 earnings performances will likely weigh on the general perception of US equities, including the Dow, for better or worse.

What is more certain, however, is that, considering current market conditions, the bar for success remains low this earnings season. If companies can report earnings that simply meet expectations rather than surpass them, that should be enough to breed at least some market optimism.

Dow Jones 30 (DJIA): Trump aides to visit Federal Reserve on Thursday

While earnings season is expected to steal much of the market spotlight this week, the spat between President Trump, his administration, and the Federal Reserve looks set to continue.

Most recently, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called for an investigation into ‘the entire Federal Reserve Institution,’ coining the phrase ‘mandate creep, ’ alleging the Federal Reserve is encroaching on political areas separate to monetary policy.

While this is perhaps the first time that the political independence of the Federal Reserve itself has been questioned recently, the same cannot be said for the current White House administration, with demands for lower rates piling up from both President Trump and his senators.

Headlines may suggest that Trump would like to replace Powell entirely, and while this may well be true, questions are to be asked whether Trump, or any incumbent president, has the power to do so. For now, this outcome appears unlikely.

Regarding US equity pricing, including the Dow, the current period of uncertainty around the Federal Reserve, both in policy and tenure, has slowed recent market momentum. As such, markets are closely watching for any clues on future monetary policy decisions ahead of the July 30th decision.

CME FedWatch, 22/07/2025

Dow Jones 30 (DJIA): Trade tariff uncertainty, geopolitical tensions and GDP growth

As a quickfire round-up of other economic themes at play affecting Dow pricing:

1. US Trade tariffs, and the ultimate success of ongoing negotiations, continue to weigh heavily on Dow pricing. If nothing else, current market uncertainty is dampening US stock market growth expectations, and will likely continue to do so until further clarity can be achieved
   
2. Geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East remain relevant to US equity performance. Especially regarding an ever-present potential for US involvement, a move away from risk assets is likely to hurt stock performance in the short-term
   
3. While the US labour market remains stable, a Q1 contraction in GDP is still fresh in the collective mind of the financial market. With the result solidifying the impact of uncertainty around monetary policy and trade tariffs, the market now turns its gaze to the end of the month for the next installment in GDP numbers, hoping for a return to positive territory

Dow Jones 30 (DJIA): Technical analysis (22/07/2025)

Dow Jones 30 (US30USD), OANDA, TradingView, 22/07/2025

• On the daily timeframe, Dow Jones price action is forming an ascending triangle, suggesting either a breakout to the upside or downside is likely across the next few sessions
• Support can be found at $43,785, then $43,411, while some resistance is likely at previous highs of ~$45,060, then ~$45,506

Read more on US equities: Nasdaq slips on profit taking as markets await key Tech earnings

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