Asia midday: Asia stocks rally on US-Japan trade deal; Nikkei hits 12-month high, WTI extends decline (Chart of the day)

[Redator]

Optimism over trade deals has strengthened the bullish sentiment across Asia-Pacific stock markets. US President Trump announced a new trade agreement with Japan, featuring a reduced tariff rate of 15% on Japanese imports (down from 25%) and a significant Japanese investment commitment of US$550 billion into the US.

Nikkei 225 surges to 12-month high; Hang Seng climbs on trade truce hopes

Japan’s Nikkei 225 soared 3.7% intraday, aiming for its best single-day gain since 10 April 2025, and touched a 12-month peak at 41,255. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index also rose 1% to near a four-year high of 25,405, buoyed by speculation of an extension to the US-China trade truce beyond the 12 August deadline, ahead of next week’s third round of US-China talks in Stockholm.

Read more in our medium-term outlook, Nikkei 225 Forecast: Start of new medium-term bullish trend amid rising JGB yields

Singapore STI extends record run; Australia’s ASX 200 rises on energy and materials

Singapore’s Straits Times Index is on pace for its 13th straight all-time closing high, rising 0.4% intraday to 4,226. Meanwhile, Australia’s ASX 200 gained 0.7% to close at 8,737, driven by strength in energy and materials sectors.

US dollar mixed in Asia after two-day slide; risk-on currencies outperform

The US dollar traded mixed during the Asia session following a two-day decline in the Dollar Index, which fell to 97.40, breaching its 20-day moving average of 97.60. Risk-on currencies outperformed: the New Zealand dollar gained 0.2% and the Australian dollar 0.1%, while safe havens like the Japanese yen and Swiss franc each slipped 0.2% against the greenback.

BoJ Uchida's dovish remarks triggered yen weakness post-trade deal

The yen’s softness was reinforced by dovish comments from BoJ Deputy Governor Uchida, who signalled no urgency to raise interest rates, even after the US-Japan trade announcement, dampening the currency’s appeal in a risk-on environment.

Gold pulls back from 5-week high amid optimism and overbought signals

Gold (XAU/USD) dipped -0.2% after reaching a five-week high of US$3,431, pressured by improved risk sentiment and overbought momentum indicators. Despite the pullback, the yellow metal maintains its short-term bullish structure with key support at US$3,385/3,360.

Crude oil extends losses despite risk-on tone; key support in focus

WTI crude oil failed to mirror the equity market’s optimism, sliding -0.3% intraday to US$66.30, marking its fourth consecutive daily decline. Prices are now nearing critical range support at US$65.20, in place since 24 June, suggesting the potential for a bearish breakdown.

Economic data releases

Fig 1: Key data for today’s Asia mid-session (Source: MarketPulse)

Chart of the day – WTI crude at risk of bearish breakdown from 4-week range

Fig 2: WTI crude minor trend as of 23 July 2025 (Source: TradingView)

After the horrendous plunge of -17% seen in two days from 23 June to 25 June, the West Texas crude has been trading within a sideways range configuration. Several technical elements now suggest a potential bearish breakdown from the 4-week range.

The price actions of West Texas crude oil have traded below its 20-day moving average for the fourth consecutive session after a bearish reaction from its key 200-day moving average on last Friday, 18 July.

In addition, the hourly RSI momentum indicator has been capped below by a parallel descending trendline resistance in place since 18 July, which indicates the lack of bullish momentum.

Watch the US$67.40 key short-term pivotal resistance (also the 20-day moving average). A break below the range support of US$65.20 triggers the bearish breakdown to expose the next intermediate support at US$62.75 (see Fig 2).

On the other hand, a clearance above US$67.40 negates the bearish tone to retest the range resistance at US$68.50/69.15 (also the 200-day moving average).

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