Tesla Q2 2025 Earnings Preview: What to Expect

[Redator]

The second quarter of 2025 is a key moment for Tesla as they release their earnings on Wednesday, July 23, 2025 after market close (AMC).

Tesla is dealing with challenges in its electric vehicle (EV) business, including lower deliveries and tighter profit margins, while also investing heavily in autonomous driving and robotics.

What to Expect?

Tesla will release its Q2 2025 earnings after US markets close on Wednesday, July 23, 2025.

In Q1 2025, Tesla faced challenges, with revenue dropping 9% year-over-year to $19.34 billion, adjusted earnings per share (EPS) missing expectations by 29% at $0.27, and automotive margins falling to 16.3%. The company also withdrew its full-year 2025 growth forecast, citing trade policy changes and uncertain economic conditions.

For Q2 2025, analysts expect these challenges to continue. Revenue is projected at $22.8 billion, down 11% from $25.5 billion in Q2 2024. Adjusted EPS is estimated at $0.43, lower than $0.52 in Q2 2024. Automotive margins are expected to slightly improve to 16.44% from Q1’s 16.3%, but still below 18.3% in Q2 2024.

Tesla reported 384,122 vehicle deliveries in Q2, a 13.5% drop from last year but a 14% increase from Q1. Production was 410,244 vehicles, flat compared to last year but up from 362,615 in Q1.

Source: Created by Zain Vawda, Google Gemini

Key Areas to Focus On

Automotive gross margins are a key focus. After falling to 16.3% in Q1 2025, they are expected to slightly improve to 16.44% in Q2. Margins remain under pressure from high interest rates, growing competition, and price cuts on models like the Model 3. Any further drops in selling prices due to discounts will be closely monitored.

Tariffs are a major challenge for Tesla. A 25% U.S. tariff on auto parts, starting May 2025, raises vehicle costs by $2,650 and could cut U.S. revenue by $1.3 to $3 billion if sales drop 8.8%. China’s 125% tariff on U.S. goods, effective April 2025, impacts Model S and X exports, potentially reducing revenue by $312.5 million and profits by $112.5 million.

Tesla also faces risks from its reliance on Chinese rare earths, which make up 90% of the global supply. A 50% price hike due to trade restrictions could add $1,275 per vehicle, increasing costs by $1.34 billion globally.

Elon Musk’s political ties could lead to backlash in China and Europe, affecting demand and Tesla’s reputation. Investors will watch for updates on government relations during the earnings call.

Source: Created by Zain Vawda, Google Gemini

Forward Outlook

Tesla plans to revisit its 2025 growth forecast in Q2 after withdrawing it earlier. Analysts estimate 2025 deliveries between 1.35 and 1.66 million vehicles, down from 1.79 million in 2024. Any updates could impact the stock price.

Key growth areas include autonomous driving and robotaxi services, which could add $1 trillion in value. Tesla also sees opportunities in energy storage and solar markets. New battery technologies, like 4680 cells, aim to improve range by 16% and cut costs by 14%, with solid-state batteries offering even greater potential.

Source: Created by Zain Vawda, Google Gemini

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, Tesla shares have been rather choppy since the back end of May with lower highs followed by higher lows.

This has brought a triangle pattern into play, and as price continues to coil a breakout will eventually materialize.

When a breakout finally does materialize, there is a potential for a $90 dollar move in the direction of the breakout.

Immediate resistance rests at 334.79 before the top line of the triangle pattern comes into play. A break above opens up a retest of the 356.67 and 367.72 handle.

Support may be located 313.00 before the 300.00 handle.

Tesla Four-Hour Chart, July 23, 2025

Source: TradingView

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